Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home price growth, federal data on public and private sector job growth, the national unemployment rate, and data on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in June

The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported slower home price growth in June as home price growth slowed to a year-over-year pace of 18.0 percent as compared to May’s reading of 19.9 percent. The 20-City Home Price Index posted 18.6  percent growth in June as compared to May’s reading of 20.50 percent year-over-year growth in May.

The top three cities in June’s 20-City Home Price Index were Tampa, Florida, which posted the fastest year-over-year home price growth rate for the fourth consecutive month with a reading of 35.00 percent,  and Miami. Florida with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 33.00 percent. Dallas, Texas completed the top three cities with year-over-year home price growth of 28.20 percent.

While all 20 cities reported double-digit percentages for year-over-year home price growth, 19 of 20 cities reported slower rates of home price appreciation in June. Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director of S&P Dow Jones Indices, explained the difference between the deceleration of home price growth and home price decline. A deceleration in home price growth indicates that while home prices continue to increase, they’re doing so at a slower pace. A decline in home prices means that home prices are falling.

Analysts expect rising mortgage rates to negatively impact home sales as affordability issues increase. As demand for homes falls, home prices may also fall as the housing market cools.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 11 basis points to 5.66 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.98 percent and 13 basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.51 percent and 15 basis points higher than in the previous week.

Initial jobless claims fell last week with 232,000 initial claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 237,000 first-time claims filed. Analysts expected 245,000 new jobless claim filings last week. Job growth reports from ADP and the government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed sharp drops in job growth; ADP, which reports on private-sector payrolls, reported 132,000 jobs added in August as compared to July’s reading of 268,000 private-sector jobs added in July. The Non-Farm Payrolls report

The national unemployment report rose to 3.70 percent in August from July’s reading of 3.50 percent. Analysts expected a reading of 3.50 percent unemployment for August.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting is spare due to the Labor Day Holiday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will be released.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home builder confidence in housing market conditions, Commerce Department readings on building permits issued, and housing starts along with readings on retail sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Home Builder Confidence Falls for 8^th Consecutive Month in August 

The National Association of Home Builders reported an index reading of 49 for home builder confidence in August. Analysts expected a reading of 54 and July’s index reading was 55. Readings over 50 indicate that a majority of home builders surveyed viewed current housing market conditions as positive. Builders surveyed cited ongoing concerns including rising materials and labor costs and a lack of buildable lots, but rapidly rising mortgage rates and the resulting higher costs of buying a home increased home builders’ concerns about the U.S. housing market.

Builders reported making buyer concessions including lowering home prices and adding buyer incentives. 20 percent of home builders surveyed said that they reduced home prices within the last month.

Component readings for home builders’ confidence were also lower. Sales expectations for the next six months fell two points; the index reading for prospective buyer traffic fell by 5 points to 32 points. Regional readings also showed lower readings for builder confidence. The Western region reported 11 points lower builder confidence in July; home builder confidence in the Northeastern region fell by nine points and home builder confidence was seven points lower in the South. Home builder confidence in the Midwestern region fell by three points.

Mortgage Rates, Initial Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.13 percent and were nine basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.55 percent and four basis points lower. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged four basis points lower at 4.39 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell to 250,000 initial claims filed as compared to 252,000 first-time jobless claims filed in the previous week. Analysts expected 260,000 initial jobless claims to be filed last week. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.44 million claims from the previous week’s reading of 1.43 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on sales of new homes and pending home sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation and consumer sentiment along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Inflation Rate Unchanged in July

According to the government’s Consumer Price Index, month-to-month inflation did not rise in July as compared to June’s reading of 1.30 percent growth. Analysts expected a reading of 0.20 percent inflationary growth. Inflation rose by 8.50 percent year-over-year against expectations of 8.70 percent year-over-year growth and June’s year-over-year inflationary growth of 9.10 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.30 percent month-to-month in July. Analysts expected a core inflation rate of  0.50 percent month-to-month in July based on June’s reading of 0.70 percent growth. 

Core inflation rose by 5.90 percent year-over-year in July; analysts expected a reading of 6.10 percent based on June’s year-over-year reading of 5.90 percent.

Lower gas prices contributed to slower inflation, but analysts said there were no guarantees of ongoing reductions in fuel prices.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 23 basis points to 5.22 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 33 basis points to 4.59 percent and the average rate for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages rose by 18 basis points to 4.43 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.00 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims rose to 262,000 new claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 264,000 first-time jobless claims filed. and the previous week’s reading of 248,000 initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also rose with 1.43 million ongoing jobless claims filed as compared to 1.42 million continuing jobless claims filed in the previous week.

The University of Michigan published its preliminary consumer sentiment index for August. Consumer sentiment rose to an index reading of 55.10 as compared to the expected reading of 52.50 and July’s index reading of 51.5. Index readings above 50 indicate that a majority of consumers surveyed had a positive view of current economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include readings on home prices, sales of previously-owned homes, along with reports on building permits issued, housing starts, and data on retail sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.