Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic readings release included reports on inflation, core inflation retail sales and retail sales excluding autos. Consumer sentiment, along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also reported.

Inflation Exceeds Expectations, Retail Sales Lag

Consumer prices rose 0.40 percent in August, which surpassed expectations of 0.30 percent growth and July’s reading of 0.10 percent. Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food and energy sectors, matched expectations with a reading of 0.20 percent growth and exceeded July’s growth of 0.10 percent.

August retail sales fell to -0.20 percent against expectations of no change from July’s reading of 0.30 percent.

Retail sales excluding auto sales grew by 0.20 percent, which was lower than expected growth of 0.40 percent, which was based on July’s growth rate of 0.40 percent.  

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady, Weekly Jobless Claims Dip

Freddie Mac reported no change for averaged fixed mortgage rates; the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged at 3.78 percent. Rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.08 percent and was also unchanged from last week’s reading. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped by two basis points to 3.13 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages. The readings for fixed rate mortgages were the lowest in 2017, and provided an ongoing incentive for home shoppers who continued to face high home prices and slim inventories of homes for sale.

New jobless claims were lower at 284,000 new claims filed than last week and were also lower than the expected reading of 300,000 first-time jobless claims The prior week’s reading reported 297,000 first-time jobless claims.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on home builder sentiment, existing home sales, housing starts and building permits issued. The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee will issue its post-meeting statement and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will give a press conference. Weekly readings for mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released. 

Last week’s economic news was slim due to the Labor Day Holiday. Scheduled releases included the Fed’s Beige Book Report and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims. 

Beige Book Cites Concerns Over U.S. Auto Industry

Federal Reserve Board members shared anecdotes from their respective regions; of note were concerns about U.S. automakers. Auto production was more than 16 percent lower year-over-year in Cleveland, Ohio. Fed business contacts said that automakers are no longer seeking buildings for expanding production. Analysts said that slowing auto production and sales could indicate slowing economic trends. Auto industry slow-downs could also result in layoffs in auto production and sales/

Economic conditions, in general, continue to improve at a “modest to moderate” rate. August’s Beige Book did not include responses to damage caused by Hurricane Harvey, but damage to Houston and surrounding areas were expected to impact negatively impact the economy.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower fixed rate mortgage rates last week; this was the second consecutive week of record low rates. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped by four basis points to 3.78 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was also four basis points lower at 3.08 percent and rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.15 percent. Discount points for fixed rate mortgages averaged 0.50 percent and points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

New jobless claims rose sharply to 298,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 242,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 236,000 new jobless claims filed. Hurricane Harvey was blamed for the surge in new jobless claims. Further impacts on jobless claims were expected as two hurricanes, Irma and Jose, approached Florida on Friday. Severe damage was predicted; the total economic impact will be assessed in the aftermath of the hurricanes.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic reports include readings on job openings, inflation, retail sales and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reports included readings on home prices, pending home sales and construction spending. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were released along with labor-sector readings on Non-Farm Payrolls, ADP employment and National Unemployment.

Case–Shiller: Three Western Cities Hold Top Three Places for Home Price Growth

According to Case-Shiller’s June edition of its 20-City Home Price Index, the top three spots were again held by Seattle, Washington, Portland Oregon and Dallas, Texas. Seattle home prices outstripped Portland, Oregon with a reading of 13.40 percent home price growth on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Portland, Oregon home prices grew by a seasonally-adjusted year-over-year rate of 8.20 percent while Dallas, Texas held third place with its year-over-year reading of 7.70 percent growth.

 David Blitzer, CEO and Managing Director of S&P’s Index Committee, said that he sees no indications that home prices will cool anytime soon. Strong labor markets and economic growth are encouraging home buyers while low inventories of homes for sale coupled with high demand continued to fuel home price growth.

Construction spending dipped in July by -0.60 percent as compared to expected growth of + 0.60 percent and June’s reading of 1.30 percent growth in spending. Real estate pros said that building more homes is the only way to ease demand for homes, but builders cited labor and lot shortages along with rising materials costs as obstacles to building more homes faster.

Mortgage Rates Fall, Weekly Jobless Claims Rise

Mortgage rates remain relatively low; Freddie Mac reported average mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell four basis points to 3.82 percent; interest rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage were four basis points lower at 3.12 percent and the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was three basis points lower at 3.14 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for all three mortgage types.

First-time jobless claims rose by 1000 claims to 236,000. Analysts had expected no change from the prior week’s reading of 235,000 new jobless claims.

ADP payrolls rose to 237,000 new jobs reported for August as compared to 201,000 new private-sector jobs reported in July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 156,000 new public and private sector jobs in August; Based on the ADP report and the expected reading of 170,000 new public and private-sector jobs, revision of the Non-Farm Payrolls report appears likely.

The National Unemployment rate ticked up from July’s reading of 4.30 percent to 4.40 percent in August. Low readings for unemployment indicate that layoffs are not significantly contributing to unemployment.

What‘s Ahead

No financial reports will be issued Monday in observance of the Labor Day Holiday. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report will be released along with reports on productivity and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.