30
Oct
By Fred Gruber
0 Comments
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 30, 2023

This week’s most significant data offered preliminary numbers for manufacturing and services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). Both can serve as a forward indicator for the economy while providing insight into the current state of the cost of living for the service industry. While manufacturing met an expected rise for the end of October, services saw a contraction, falling to 46.6 from 49.3. Readings below 50.0 can be a sign of a downturn for the economy, particularly given the time of the year.

Mortgage Applications & Rates Indices
MBA Mortgage Applications Index saw a reduction of -1.0% in applications for the week, with rates once again increasing again week over week.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a week-to-week increase by 0.11% with the current rate at 03%.
  • 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a week-to-week increase by 0.16% with the current rate at 79%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates increased week to week with a -0.08% decrease for this week. Current rates at 32%
  • 30-Yr VA rates increased week to week with a -0.11% decrease for this week. Current rates at 33%

Personal Income & Spending

Personal income increased $77.8 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 2 and table 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), which is personal income less personal current taxes, increased $56.1 billion (0.3 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $138.7 billion (0.7 percent).

  • The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent.
  • Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.

Key point: Personal income increased in September and spending accordingly rose, moving into October. This increase in income and spending is expected moving into the Holiday season. This is a strong sign for the Advanced GDP numbers for the remainder of the year.

Job Claims
Those who applied for unemployment benefits last week fell to a nine-month low of 188,000, subverting expectations that layoffs would rise as the U.S. interest rates continued to increase.
Initial Claims were 210,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week was at 211,000.

What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reports include ISM manufacturing data, S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI, and Job Openings. The stronger data points of U.S. non-farm payrolls are coming at the end of the week on Friday.

23
Oct
By Fred Gruber
0 Comments
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 23, 2023

This week featured the usual retail sales report which shows consumer demand and as well as an indicator of the velocity of money, not only for consumers but business to business as well. An increase would show an increase in national and local increase in economic activity, which is important as we move into Q4 of the year; where the holiday season is expected to see an increase in consumer activity.

Retail Sales
Retail sales have exceeded expectations this month showing month-to-month increases across the board:

  • Retail sales are up 0.7% from the previous month with an expected increase of 0.3%.
  • Retail sales with auto removed show an increase of 0.6% compared to an expected 0.2% increase.
  • Business inventories are also above the expected increase at 0.4% compared to 0.3%.

Housing Starts & Building Permits
U.S. Housing Starts rebound in September in September after a sharp drop in the prior month. Largely, economists are feeling that builders have been losing confidence since rates have peaked over 7% and housing is expected to trend lower until the end of the year.

  • Construction of new U.S. homes rebounded 7% in September to an annual pace of 1.36 million units after a sharp 1.5% drop in the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
  • Building permits, a sign of future construction, fell 4.4% to a 1.47 million rate.
  • Existing home sales beat expected sales with 3.98 million sales compared to the expected 3.90 million sales.

Key point: The pace of construction for single-family homes in September has risen by 3.2% and apartment building construction rose by 17.1%

Mortgage Applications Increased for the Month of October
MBA Mortgage Applications Increase, a measure of mortgage loan application volume again.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week increase by 0.03% with the rates now at 92%.
  • 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week increase by 0.06% with the current rate at 63%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates increased week to week seeing a 0.28% basis point increase. Current rates at 40%
  • 30-Yr VA rates increased week to week seeing a 0.30% basis point increase. Current rates at 44%

Job Claims
Those who applied for unemployment benefits last week fell to a nine-month low of 188,000, subverting expectations that layoffs would rise as the U.S. interest rates continued to increase.

Initial Claims were 188,000 compared to the expected claims of 211,000. The prior month was 211,000.

What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reports include PMI data, along with new home sales. There will also be a national GDP data release which can give an indication of the growth of markets and economy as a whole. Lastly, Personal Income and Spending will be at the tail of the week along with PCE Index numbers.

16
Oct
By Fred Gruber
0 Comments
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 16, 2023

Last week’s economic report schedule included notable reports with the CPI & Core CPI in addition to PPI and Core PPI. Many markets are keeping a close eye on the inflation numbers for the U.S. as well as many other parts of the world to help guide their policies.

Other notable reports were MBA Mortgage Applications Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report (Prelim.)

Consumer Price Index
With current inflation data, the Federal Reserve has hinted that they are close to ending their rate-hiking cycle for the future. This reflects a greater optimism for a soft landing in many markets.

  • Cost of goods rose 0.9% in September after a 2% gain in the prior month.
  • The cost of services rose 0.3% last month, up slightly from 0.2% in August.
  • Energy prices rose 3.3% in September, down from a 10.3% gain in the previous month.
  • Wholesale food prices have moved up 0.9% after a 0.5% fall in the previous month

Product Price Index
Over the last year, the mainline PPI is up 2.2% in September, up from 2% in the prior month. This is the highest rate since April.

  • Core PPI has had an increase of 0.3% over the previous month.
  • PPI has had an increase of 0.5% over the previous month.

Key point: This is the second month in a row that goods prices have outpaced service costs.

Mortgage Applications Increased for the Month of October
MBA Mortgage Applications Increase, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6% percent compared to the previous month which had seen a -6.0% reduction.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report
The University of Michigan reported that the preliminary index for Consumer Sentiment in October came in at 63, missing the consensus estimate of 67.4. The final reading of the index for September was 68.1. Expectations for the one-year inflation rate rose to 3.8% in October from 3.2% in September, marking its highest reading since May.

What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation, U.S. retail sales, and the preliminary monthly report on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims will also be released.