Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic reports were in short supply due to the Christmas holiday. Events reported included Case-Shiller home price indices, pending home sales and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims. Consumer confidence was also released.

Case–Shiller Readings Indicate No Slowdown in Home Price Gains

Case-Shiller’s October readings for its home price indices showed continued growth in home prices. In spite of rising home prices and mortgage rates, high demand for homes and slim supplies of homes for sale continued to fuel higher home prices.

According to Case-Shiller’s national home price index for October, home prices rose 5.60 percent on an annual basis as compared to September’s reading of 5.40 percent. The 20-city home price index rose to 5.10 percent from September’s reading of 5.00 percent. Case-Shiller’s 10-city index also gained 0.10 percent in October with a reading of 4.30 percent year-over-year.

Seattle, Washington, Portland, Oregon and Denver, Colorado had the highest year-over-year home price gains in October with readings of 10.70, 10.30 and 8.30 percent respectively. David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the S&P Indices Committee, said that “Home prices and the economy are both enjoying robust numbers,” but he also cautioned that rising mortgage rates and home prices growing faster than wages continue to pose obstacles for some home buyers. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its federal funds rate in 2017, which is expected to prompt rising mortgage rates.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Pending Home Sales Fall

Pending home sales fell 2.50 percent in November. Analysts said that post-election reaction helped to drive mortgage rates higher, which made homes less affordable for first-time and moderate-income buyers; Sellers and buyers may have postponed decisions to sell or buy as they waited for volatile post-election responses to ease.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, pending home sales fell to their lowest level in almost a year with an index reading of 107.30 in November. September’s reading was 110.00. The holiday season and rising mortgage rates were seen as contributing to fewer pending home sales.

Freddie Mac reported the ninth consecutive week that fixed rate mortgages rose. In the final mortgage rates survey for 2016, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage rose two basis points to 4.32 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was three basis points higher at 3.55 percent. 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage rates averaged 3.30 percent, which was two basis points lower than the prior week. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for all three mortgage types.

New jobless claims were lower last week with a reading of 265,000 new claims filed. Analysts had expected 270,000 new claims filed based on the prior week’s reading of 275,000 new claims filed.

In spite of rising home prices and mortgage rates, consumer sentiment was higher than expected in December with a reading of 113.70 as compared to expectations of 110.00 and November’s reading of 109.40.

What‘s Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic reports include Labor Department releases on Non-Farm Payrolls, and the national unemployment rate. ADP payrolls and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released. Financial markets will be closed on Monday in observance of New Year’s Day.

Last week’s economic news included readings on consumer spending, core inflation new home sales and regularly scheduled readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Consumer Spending Dips in November

Commerce Department reports on consumer spending in November indicated that consumer spending was lower in November with 0.20 percent growth as compared to October’s reading of 0.40 percent growth. November’s reading for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, was flat as compared to expectations of 0.10 percent growth and October’s reading of 0.10 percent growth.

New Jobless Claims Rise to 6–Month High

New jobless claims jumped to 275,000 last week as compared to an expected reading of 258,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 254,000 new claims. New claims typically rise during the holiday season due to school and other workplace closures.

There was good news as new jobless claims remained below the benchmark of 300,000 new claims for 94 consecutive weeks. This streak of new claims below 300,000 new claims is the longest since 1970. Increasing numbers of “contingent” workers contributed to volatility in employment; The Rand Corporation reported that 10.10 percent of the workforce was contingent workers in 2005; the percentage of contingent workers increased to 15.80 percent of the U.S. workforce in 2015.

Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales Rise

Freddie Mac reported a jump in mortgage rates last week; the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 14 basis points higher at 4.30 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 15 basis points higher at 3.52 percent; the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage rose 13 basis points to 3.32 percent. Analysts said that the 10-year Treasury rate rose 10 basis points in response to the Fed raising its target funds rate. New home sales gained in November with a seasonally adjusted annualized reading of 582,000 sales as compared to 285,000 expected sales and October’s annual rate of 563,000 sales of new homes. This was the second highest reading for new home sales since early 2008. Builders will be watching mortgage rates and new home sales in the New Year to determine how rising mortgage rates will impact new home sales.

What‘s Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic news includes Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports, pending home sales and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims. U.S. Financial markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Christmas holiday

Housing news was boosted by the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which posted its highest readings since July of 2002. In other news, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise the federal funds rate and Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave a press conference. Mortgage rates rose and weekly jobless claims fell.

Home Builder Confidence Highest in 14 Years, Home Construction Lags

According to the National Association of Home Builders, builder confidence in housing market conditions reached its highest rate since 2002 in December. The NAHB Housing Market Index reading topped out at 70 as compared to November’s reading of 63. Analysts said that December’s high reading resulted from a post-election bump in builder confidence. While high builder confidence could bode well for supplies of new homes, construction rates continued to lag strong economic indicators such as low unemployment and high demand for homes. While builders gained confidence in current and projected housing market conditions, they continued to face shortages of labor and buildable lots.

Fed Raises Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the federal funds range by 0.25 percent to 0.50 to 0.75 percent. FOMC said strengthening job markets, lower unemployment and rising household spending supported the decision to raise the federal funds rate. Inflation, while below the Fed’s target of 2.00 percent, is gradually moving toward the Fed’s medium term goal. FOMC’s statement indicated that the Fed’s monetary policy would remain accommodative.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen held a press conference and cited “considerable progress” toward the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability as factors supporting the decision to raise the target federal funds range. Labor markets continue to improve; Chair Yellen said that the economy has added 180,000 jobs per month over the last three months. 15 million jobs have been added in the past seven years. Inflation is growing gradually, and the Fed expects to achieve its target inflation rate of 2.00 percent over the next two years.

Month-to-month consumer spending readings held steady at 0.20 percent growth. Core consumer price index data, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, rose from 0.10 percent to 0.20 percent in November.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Jobless Claims

Mortgage rates were higher last week, but Freddie Mac said that its survey data was collected before FOMC raised the federal funds rate. Analysts at Freddie Mac suggested a wait-and see position on rate forecasts due to the changing political climate. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was three basis points higher at 4.16 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose one basis point to 2.37 percent and the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was two basis points higher at 3.19 percent. Average discount points for fixed rate mortgages held steady at 0.50 percent and dipped to 0.40 percent for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage.

New jobless claims were lower last week at 254,000 claims filed. Analysts had expected a reading of 250,000 new claims based on the prior week’s reading of 258,000 new claims filed. Volatility in weekly readings for new jobless claims can be expected due to seasonal hiring and layoffs.

What‘s Ahead

Next week’s economic releases include readings on new and previously-owned home sales, inflation and consumer sentiment. Readings for mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.