Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic reports included readings on the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, Commerce Department releases on Housing Starts and Building Permits issued and weekly reports on new jobless claims and mortgage rates.

Builder Sentiment Holds Steady, Demand for Homes Pushes Builders

November’s reading for the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index held steady with a reading of 65. Any reading above 50 indicates that a majority of home builders surveyed has a positive view of current and future housing market conditions. Tight supplies of available homes, steep competition for homes in desirable metro areas and rising home prices pressure home builders to produce more homes, but builder sentiment and housing starts are not always aligned, but data released by the Commerce Department indicates that builders are ramping up construction.

The Commerce Department reported that October’s reading of 1.323 housing starts exceeded September’s reading of 1.054 million starts and also surpassed the expected reading of 1.170 million starts. This suggests that builders are ramping up construction to quench ongoing demand for homes. October’s reading was 25.50 percent higher than September’s reading, which was the highest number of housing starts posted since 2007. Starts for multi-family homes of five units or more jumped 75 percent and starts for single family homes of four units or less increased by 11 percent.

Building permits issued in October rose to 1.229 million as compared to September’s reading of 1.225 million permits issued. Approaching winter weather and holidays typically cause slowing of construction.

Mortgage Rates Rise after Election

Last week’s survey of mortgage rates was mostly completed by the time presidential election results were released; this week’s readings showed higher rates for all types of mortgages. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased from 3.57 percent to 3.94 percent; rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose from 2.88 to 3.14 percent and the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was also higher at 3.07 percent as compared to the prior week’s reading of 2.88 percent. Discount points were unchanged at 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages. Low mortgage rates have helped home buyers qualify for financing they need to buy homes; if rates continue to trend upward, demand for homes is likely to ease.

New jobless claims reached a 43-year low last week. 235,000 claims were filed as compared to expectations of 255,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 254,000 new jobless claims. Low layoff rates point to stronger economic conditions; job stability can encourage first-time home buyers to enter the market and existing home owners to buy larger homes.

What’s Ahead

Readings on new and pre-owned home sales, the Federal Reserve’s post meeting FOMC statement and reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will be released this week.

Last week’s economic news included readings on job openings, consumer sentiment and the Federal Reserve’s monthly survey of senior loan officers. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released. Freddie Mac noted that last week’s primary mortgage market survey did not include post-election readings as the survey information was gathered prior to election results.

Loan Officers Survey: High Demand for Home Loans, Commercial Lenders Raise Standards

As demand for mortgage financing and homes increase, the Federal Reserve reported last week that banks are tightening the screws on commercial lending requirements. This could present challenges to home builders; they’ve been consistently pressured to build more homes at a faster pace. Less availability of commercial financing may impact home builders and their suppliers. The survey indicated that demand for home and consumer loans also increased.

Mortgage Rates Rise, New Jobless Claims Fall

Mortgage rates rose across the board on average. Freddie Mac reported the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose three basis points to 3.57 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage increased four basis points to 2.88 percent, which equaled the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage. Average discount points were unchanged at 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims fell to 254,000, which was lower than the expected reading of 260,000 new claims. Last week’s reading was also lower than 265,000 new claims filed the prior week. Job openings held steady at 5.50 million in September.

According to the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer sentiment index, November’s reading rose 91.60 in November as compared to an expected index reading of 88.00 and October’s reading of 87.20. This reading falls in line with strengthening labor markets. Improving economic conditions can influence consumers who want to buy homes.

What‘s Ahead

Next week’s economic reports include releases from the National Association of Home Builders, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued and weekly releases on new jobless claims and mortgage rates.

Last week’s economic news included reports on inflation, construction spending, the Federal Reserve’s announcement regarding interest rates and several labor and employment related releases. Weekly reports on new jobless claims and Freddie Mac’s survey of interest rates were also released.

Construction Spending Rises, Fed Holds Steady on Interest Rates, Suggests December Increase

Construction spending remained in negative territory for September according to the Commerce Department. The month-to-month reading decreased by 0.40 percent against the expected reading of +0.40 percent and August’s reading of -0.50 percent. Approaching winter weather is a likely reason for less spending, but ongoing challenges with shortages of buildable lots and labor are also factors. Spending on residential construction rose 0.50 percent, which is good news in terms of a persistent shortage of available homes.

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced that it would hold federal interest rates in the target range of 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. Analysts have been monitoring Fed policymaker pronouncements in anticipation of a rate increase. With strengthening labor markets and other economic indicators, policy makers hinted at raising the Fed target rate in December.

Labor Data: Slower Job Creation, Lower Unemployment

ADP payrolls showed that only private-sector jobs 147,000 jobs were created in October as compared to September’s reading of 202,000 jobs created. The Labor Department reported 161,000 government and private-sector jobs were added in October as compared to an expected reading of 175,000 jobs added and September’s reading of 191,000 jobs created. Healthcare, professional jobs and financial sector jobs showed the highest job gains.

National Unemployment met expectations with an October reading of 4.90 percent. September’s reading was 5.00 percent Unemployment readings are reported as a percentage of workers seeking work and do not include workers who’ve left the workforce. New jobless claims rose last week to 265,000 as compared to expectations for 258,000 new jobless claims and the prior week’s reading of 258,000 new jobless claims.

Mortgage Rates Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week. 30-year fixed rate loans had an average rate of 3.54 percent, an increase of seven basis points. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose six basis points to 2.84 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was three basis points higher at 2.87 percent. Discount points for fixed rate mortgages averaged 0.50 percent; discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages held steady at 0.40 percent.

Low mortgage rates have helped to offset the effects of high demand for homes and rapidly rising prices; if mortgage and refinance rates continue to rise, affordability and mortgage qualification issues are likely to arise for some home buyers.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include job openings, consumer sentiment and weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.