Fed Lowers Key Interest Rate For First Time Since Great Recession

 Fed Lowers Key Interest Rate For First Time Since Great RecessionThe Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced the first rate cut to its key interest rate range since the Great Recession ushered in a series of rate cuts described as “quantitative easing.” The Fed committee confirmed a quarter-point cut to 2.00 to 2.25 percent.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a “mid-cycle adjustment” intended as a one-time boost for the economy. Mr. Powell said he did not view the cut as the first in a series of quantitative easing moves, but analysts said single rate cuts are not common.

The FOMC post-meeting statement said the decision to cut rates was based on global and domestic economic developments prompted by recent trade wars and resulting uncertainties. The Fed also cited inflation concerns connected with its dual mandate of maintaining maximum employment and stable pricing, but did not indicate urgency in its decision to reduce its benchmark rate range.

No Commitment to Future Rate Cuts

The FOMC statement did not commit to future rate cuts, but said that committee members would “continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric two percent objective.” Mr. Powell said, “If you look overall, financial stability vulnerabilities are moderate.” Eight of ten FOMC members voted in favor of the rate cut.

Projections for future cuts varied, as the Fed gave no guarantees of further rate cuts and economists predicted one more rate cut in 2019. Bond market analysts expected three rate cuts this year, which was factored into bond pricing.

The Fed also announced it was ending is efforts to shrink its balance sheet and that it was important for the Fed to buy Treasury bonds in the open market as mortgage assets move out of the Fed’s balance sheet. This move was expected to stabilize the market.

The FOMC statement concluded with the Committee’s consistent commitment to  assess real and expected economic developments and to review global and domestic developments along with readings on economic and financial trends as part of its decision-making process. The FOMC outlook is flexible and subject to change as events warrant.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 30th, 2018

What's ahead for mortgage rates april 30 2018Last week’s economic reports included readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, new and existing home sales and weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.

Case-Shiller: Home Prices Rise to Near Four-Year High

February home prices rose 6.30 percent year-over-year and 0.50 percent month-to-month. Home prices rose just shy of a record set in 2014. The 20-City Home Price Index reported home prices were 6.80 percent higher year-over-year and rose 0.80 percent month-to-month in February. The year-over-year reading surpassed the peak reading in 2006. Home prices accelerated in contrast to analyst expectations that they nay slow as buyers deal with a short supply of homes for sale.

Cities with the three highest readings in year-over-year home price growth were Seattle, Washington with 12.70 percent growth, Las Vegas, Nevada home prices rose 11.60 percent, and San Francisco, California home prices rose by 10.10 percent according to Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index for February.

Severe shortages of homes and high demand in the west and in areas impacted by the housing bubble burst are driving the rapid rise of home prices; while it appears that homebuyers may be sidelined by high home prices, increasing home sales suggest that buyers may be buying before higher prices cut them out of the market.

Sales of New and Existing Homes Surpass Expectations in March

Sales of pre-owned homes rose to 5.60 million sales on a seasonally-adjusted year-over-year basis. Analysts expected a reading of 5.52 million sales based on February’s reading of5.54 million pre-owned homes sold. Sales of new homes also exceeded expectations with a sales rate 0f 694,000 sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Analysts expected a reading of 634,000 new hone sales. February’s reading was 667,000 new home sales. As with the boost in sales of pre-owned homes, analysts said that buyers are anxious to buy before they’re priced out of the market or cannot qualify for mortgage loans.

Mortgage Rates Rise, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates for the third consecutive week. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.58 percent and were 11 basis points higher. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 8 basis points higher at 4.02 percent; The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was seven basis points higher at 3.74 percent. Rising Treasury yields were driven by higher commodity prices drove mortgage rates higher.

Economic indicators have steadily strengthened, which traditionally boosts home prices. While analysts have shown concerns over rapidly rising home prices and mortgage rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported mortgage applications were 11 percent higher year-over-year.

New jobless claims fell to 209,000 first-time claims filed as compared to expectations of 230,000 new claims, and the prior week’s reading of 233,000 new claims filed. Lower jobless claims indicate fewer layoffs and strengthening labor markets.

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic releases include readings on inflation, job growth, and national unemployment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 16th, 2018

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 16th, 2018Last week’s economic reports included readings on inflation, the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee and weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims. The University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index for April.

Inflation Grows, Fed Indicates Future Rate Hikes Likely

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting held March 20 and 21 indicate Fed policymakers are likely to increase the target federal funds rate at their June meeting. Economic indicators including strong labor markets and low unemployment rate were cited as contributing to expectations for federal rate hikes throughout 2018.

How the Fed moves on interest rates affects private sector interest rates as financial institutions typically follow the Fed’s lead regarding raising or not raising consumer lending and mortgage rates.

FOMC minutes said that members noted increasing consumer credit card balances, but also said that sub-prime borrowers continued to have trouble in getting adequate credit at favorable interest rates.

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady, New Jobless Claims Dip

Mortgage rates were little changed last week according to Freddie Mac. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose two basis points to an average of 4.42 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged at 3.87 percent.

Rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged one basis point higher at 3.61 percent. Discount points averaged 0.40 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims were lower last week with 223,000 claims filed; analysts expected 230,000 new claims filed based on the prior week’s reading of 242,000 new claims filed. In other news, the University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index with an index reading of 97.8 for April. Analysts expected a reading of 101.8, which was based on the March reading of 101.4

Consumers surveyed were fearful of possible trade wars resulting from recent tariffs on foreign goods; the consumer sentiment index dipped from its March reading of 101.4 to 97.8. Builders have said that tariffs will increase prices on building materials and such increases would drive home prices up.

Whats Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include readings on builder sentiment from the National Association of Home Builders, Commerce Department reports on housing starts and building permits issued and readings on retail sales. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.