Financial Report

Last week’s inflation reports, both the CPI and PPI, came in significantly cooler than expected. However, this must be viewed in the context of the administration’s recent tariff policies. Rather than signaling a healthy reduction in inflation, the data points to signs of deflation—which can be just as damaging to the economy as high inflation. While the FOMC Minutes offered little insight regarding interest rate changes, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that no action will be taken until more data becomes available. Finally, the latest consumer sentiment report dropped to its lowest level in three years, with inflation concerns reaching their highest point since 1981.

Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices fell in March for the first time since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, but economists warn inflation could get worse if the U.S. retains higher tariffs on China and the rest of the world. The consumer-price index declined 0.1% last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, aided by falling oil prices and lower airfares. It was the first drop since May 2020.

Producer Price Index

Cheaper oil has taken some pressure off on the inflation front, but it may only be temporary in the face of a major trade war between the U.S. and China. Wholesale prices in the U.S. fell 0.4% in March, dropping for the first time in 17 months, mimicking a similar report on consumer goods and services that showed retail-level inflation was muted last month.

Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 50.8% in a preliminary April reading from 57.0% in the prior month.  It is the lowest level since June 2022. Sentiment has dropped for four straight months and is down 30% from December. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected an April reading of 54.6%.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw no change from last week, with the current rate at 5.82%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.62%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.47% for this week. Current rates at 6.50%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.47% for this week. Current rates at 6.52%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 223,000 compared to the expected claims of 223,000. The prior week landed at 219,000.

What’s Ahead

Very light release week with low impact data in the form of Federal Reserve’s beige book, Consumer Sentiment, and Leading U.S. Economic Indicators.

The previous week has seen tremendous impacts with the Trump administration’s recently revealed tariff policies, sparking widespread concern about their broad economic effects. These concerns have already led to rapid contractions in multiple markets.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has stated he is very uncertain about any moves made by the Federal Reserve and wants to wait for additional information before making decisions.

Uncertainty is at an all-time high, without much relief—even in light of positive data from previous months. Without any clear direction, there is growing speculation that inflation will only increase from here. Meanwhile, employment data has already shown a rapid increase in unemployment forecasts.

U.S. Employment Report

The U.S. added a bigger-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March. Good news to be sure, but that was before President Trump unveiled norm-shattering tariffs on the rest of the world, the repercussions of which are yet to be felt on the labor market. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast an increase of 140,000 new jobs in March vs a revised 117,000 gain in February. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, moved up to 4.2% from 4.1%, matching the highest rate in five months.

ISM Manufacturing

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), tariffs are driving up business costs and dampening economic activity. U.S. manufacturers appear to have slipped back into a slump, facing higher input prices and weaker demand due to President Donald Trump’s new metal tariffs and pending duties on other imported goods. ISM’s manufacturing index fell to 49% in March, down from 50.3% the previous month—any reading below 50% indicates a contraction in the sector.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07% with the current rate at 5.82%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 6.64%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.15% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.15% for this week. Current rates at 6.05%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 228,000. The prior week landed at 225,000.

What’s Ahead

Following reports that the tariff news has disrupted market expectations, we should anticipate that both the CPI and PPI forecasts will come in higher than expected.

With the introduction of tariffs on Tuesday, there is significant uncertainty across all sectors regarding the potential outcome. While important data releases—including the PCE Index, Personal Income & Spending, and Consumer Sentiment for the quarter—have taken place, their impact is expected to be largely overshadowed by apprehension surrounding the widespread tariff decisions.

With the upcoming release of inflation reports, including the CPI and PPI this week, all eyes will be on these two key metrics. The focus remains on tariffs and their impact on the markets, as well as inflation, which is likely to be influenced by the new tariff policies.

PCI Index

A separate measure of prices known as the core rate rose a sharper 0.4% in February, a tick above Wall Street’s forecast. The increase in the core PCE in the past year climbed to 2.8% from 2.7%. The core rate omits food and energy prices, which often jump up and down in the short run. It’s seen as a better predictor of future inflation.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending rose a modest 0.4% last month, the government said, and rebounded from a decline in January. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had projected a 0.5% gain. Household spending is the main engine of the U.S. economy, but it appears to have sputtered in early 2025.

Consumer Sentiment

The final reading of consumer sentiment in March fell to a 32-month low, as more Americans than at any time since the financial crisis think unemployment will rise in the year ahead. The second of two readings of the consumer-sentiment survey fell to 57.0 from an initial 57.9, the University of Michigan said Friday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% with the current rate at 5.89%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 6.65%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.18%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.20%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 224,000 compared to the expected claims of 226,000. The prior week landed at 225,000.

What’s Ahead

CPI and PPI are ahead next week as well as the tariffs, which are set to be in effect starting Tuesday.