Financial Report

Last week’s inflation data came in at a higher rate than expected, with Price Producer Index (PPI) numbers showing more than double the expected inflation gain.

With both CPI and PPI being over the target, the steadfast certainty that the Federal Reserve will cut rates has now taken a step back, resulting in more tamed expectations for the near future.

With a mixed response from lending partners, this may end up rapidly changing in the next round of discussions with the Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell this coming week, as well as a final rate decision.

Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices matched the biggest increase in February in five months, leaving the yearly rate of inflation above 3% a week before the Federal Reserve meets again to consider when to cut interest rates. The consumer price index climbed 0.4% last month, the government said, largely because of higher gas prices and housing costs. It was the largest increase since last September.

Price Producer Index

The biggest increase in wholesale costs since last summer is the latest in a string of readings that suggest inflation might not slow quickly toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. The producer-price index jumped 0.6% in February, the government said Thursday. The increase matched the largest gain since last August. This was double the expected 0.3% projections.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.06% with the current rate at 6.16%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.14% with the current rate at 6.74%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a +0.22% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.60%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a +0.22% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.62%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 209,000 compared to the expected claims of 218,000. The prior week landed at 210,000.

What’s Ahead

The Federal Reserve Rate Decision will be the most important aspect of this coming week, as well as talks with other Federal Reserve board members — as whether there is a rate cut or not will help decide where many markets will be headed for the next quarter.

With a focus on the upcoming inflation data reports with CPI and PPI this week, the previous week was very light on data. The only relevant reports released were the non-farm payroll and U.S. trade balance data releases. 

Job reports are showing robust hiring numbers and the trade balance remains within expectations. There appears to be to not much to fear coming from this next round of inflation data. Lending partners are reflecting this sentiment as they continue to cut rates.

Non-farm Payrolls

The economy created a greater-than-expected 275,000 new jobs in February, in a seemingly bullish display that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s decision on when to cut U.S. interest rates. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had predicted a 198,000 increase in new jobs last month.

U.S. Trade Balance

The U.S. international trade deficit widened 5.1% in January to $67.4 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. It is the largest trade gap since April 2023; the widening was larger than expected. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted the deficit would widen to a seasonally adjusted $63.4 billion from the initial estimate of a deficit of $62.2 billion in June.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 6.22%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.06% with the current rate at 6.88%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.19% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.38%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.17% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.40%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 which was right in line with expectations. The prior week landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead

Upcoming we have the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index releases for next week; there will not be many other releases.

A number of important consumer related data reports were released last week, giving us a clearer picture on inflation impacts and the state of the economy on a broader scale. First up, looking at the First Revision of GDP numbers, we are seeing they had fallen slightly below expectations, but still showing the economy has not deflated at all as of the result of the prior years’ repeated rate hikes.

With inflation trending down, this makes for a convincing argument that rate cuts are due this year. This also sets the stage for the official consumer confidence reports, revealing mounting anxiety regarding the political climate of the nation, marking the first decline in four months.

Next up, PCE and Personal Income spending has shown that in a number of areas, inflation is still impacting a number of factors for the consumer and general cost of living. Personal spending was expected to slow, but the slowing has been more impactful than anticipated. Despite this, across lending partners and markets alike, there is a consensus that rate cuts are highly likely.

GDP (First Revision)

The growth rate of the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter was downgraded slightly to a 3.2% annual pace, but the economy continues to grow swiftly and is showing few signs of slowing down. Originally, the government said gross domestic product had expanded at a 3.3% rate in the final three months of 2023. The figure is adjusted for inflation.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence retreated in February from a six-month high, partly due to the angst surrounding the U.S. presidential election. The closely followed index fell to 106.7 from a revised 110.9 in January, the Conference Board said Tuesday. It was the first decline in three months.

PCE Index

Inflation rose in January at the fastest pace in four months, based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE gauge, in a sign price pressures might not return to low pre-pandemic levels as quickly as hoped.

The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Wednesday. That matched the forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending in the U.S. got off to a slow start in the new year, perhaps a hangover from a big holiday shopping season. Household outlays increased by a mere 0.2% last month, the government said Thursday. It was the smallest increase in three months.

Pending Home Sales Report

Pending home sales fell 4.9% in January as rising mortgage rates pushed buyers out of the housing market, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.03% with the current rate at 6.26%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.04% with the current rate at 6.94%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.07% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.57%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.10% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.57%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 215,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 202,000.

What’s Ahead

This upcoming week, we have the non-farm payrolls which indicates how much payroll increases have kept up with inflation. Along with that is the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and U.S. Trade Balance, which has been in a deficit for some time; although the broader impact on the economy has not yet been determined by this.