Financial Report

A government holiday followed by an extremely light release schedule has led to a limited amount of data, with the FOMC Minutes being the only impactful report for the prior week. The Federal Reserve had stated they will continue to maintain their current stance in light of the most recent inflation data. With rates holding into the year, as a result, lending partners have started back tracking some of their recent rate cuts. Lastly, Unemployment Numbers are seen to be well within expectations.

FOMC Minutes

“Most” officials noted the risks of moving too quickly to cut rates and wanted to carefully assess the data for more progress on inflation, the minutes said.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase by 0.17% with the current rate at 6.29%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase by 0.13% with the current rate at 6.90%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.01% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.64%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.03% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.67%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 201,000 compared to the expected claims of 216,000. The prior week landed at 213,000.

What’s Ahead

There is a slate of quarterly reports due next week, which will help understand the current conditions. With the Federal Reserve’s current stance on cutting rates any time soon, it seems unlikely many of those reports will have any significant impact. We should expect Consumer Confidence reports, first revision of GDP numbers, and PCE along with PMI numbers that will let us know the current state of manufacturing and trade deficits.

Last week’s release of CPI and PPI resulted in slightly higher than expected inflation rates which led to speculation that the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates will likely come much further in the year than anticipated. There was some suspicion that if inflation rates would continue to exceed predictions, it could result in another rate hike. Lending partners have responded in kind with the first significant increase in lending rates since the end of November. However, The Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance. 

Other reports such as US Retail Sales are showing a drop, but this is contrasted by the Consumer Sentiment reports which show an opposite effect — with the economic landscape showing an overall declining inflation rate and strong job market.

Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices rose a sharper-than-expected 0.3% in January and the rate of inflation remained stuck above 3% — a small but possibly temporary setback in the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation.

The consumer price index was forecast to rise 0.2% by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The yearly rate of inflation slipped to 3.1% from 3.4% in the prior month. It hasn’t been below 3% since March 2021.

Producer Price Index

Wholesale costs rose in January at the fastest pace in five months, possibly another sign that inflation won’t slow toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target as fast as hoped.

The producer-price index rose 0.3% last month, a considerably stronger increase than the 0.1% forecast from economists polled by the Wall Street Journal.

Consumer Sentiment Report

The numbers: Consumer sentiment crept up in early February to a 31-month high, fueled by slowing inflation and a strong job market. The first of two readings of the sentiment survey this month rose to 79.6 from 79.0 in January, the University of Michigan said Friday. That’s the highest reading since July 2021.

U.S. Retail Sales

Sales at retailers fell 0.8% in January to mark the biggest drop in 10 months, indicating that Americans took a timeout after a flush of spending during the holiday season.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase by 0.22% with the current rate at 6.12%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase by 0.13% with the current rate at 6.77%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.36% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.65%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a 0.41% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.70%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 212,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 220,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week we should be expecting a number of speakers from the Federal Reserve discussing the current state of the economy, PCE Index data releases being the largest releases with minor releases in Advanced Retail Inventory numbers which should indicate the state of consumer spending.

This week is the release of Core CPI and PPI numbers for January. The only data release of note is the trade deficit and the usual unemployment reports for the prior week. The current trade deficit for the U.S. is operating precisely within expectations and correlating GDP numbers. This current week will provide further guidance for the Federal Reserve as the next release of inflation data is released.

U.S. Trade Deficit

The U.S. trade deficit rose slightly in December, but the annual gap still fell to the lowest level in three years and added to the economy’s strong performance in 2023.

Record deficits in 2021 and 2022, by contrast, acted as a big drag on gross domestic product, the official scorecard of the U.S. economy.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 5.90%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by 0.01% with the current rate at 6.64%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.05% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.22%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.06% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.24%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 218,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 227,000.

What’s Ahead

Core CPI and Core PPI numbers are the primary reports being released this week. Given the Federal Reserve hesitation to move on any pending rate cuts, each release of inflation data that goes well, further adds conviction the Federal Reserve will soon be looking to cut rates after a satisfactory period.