19
Aug
By Fred Gruber
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 19th, 2024

The results are in, and both the CPI and PPI inflation reports confirm that inflation has come in lower than expected, surpassing expectations. This is a great result leading forward for the next FOMC Rate Decision meeting, as there is high optimism now that the rate cuts are coming this year. With next week’s FOMC Minutes guiding the next meeting, we can expect to hear their stance going forward. We also see a matching indicator in Retail Sales, showing a significant gain across the board, while auto sales had the largest increase in one and a half years. This aligns with previous consumer confidence reports and will serve as a good reference when making the next rate decision for the Federal Reserve.

Consumer Price Index

Inflation stays mild; the 2.9% annual pace is at its lowest since March 2021. The bulk of inflation in July was concentrated in housing; accounting for 90% of the increase in the consumer price index. Energy and food were on the tamer side. Energy prices were flat and the cost of food rose 0.2%.

Producer Price Index

In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand increased by 0.1 percent.eh Prices for final demand goods moved up 0.6 percent, and the index for final demand services fell 0.2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in July, the overall prices for final demand increased by 2.2 percent. Wholesale inflation shows few warning signs. Fed interest-rate cut is still on track.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.03% with the current rate at 5.66%
  • 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.02% with the current rate at 6.49%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.01% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.10%
  • 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a 0.02% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.12%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 227,000 compared to the expected claims of 234,000. The prior week landed at 233,000.

What’s Ahead

With only the FOMC Minutes coming up next week, the rest of the week has a notably light schedule. However, the regular weekly reports are still expected to be delivered as usual.

15
Aug
By Fred Gruber
Mortgage Rates

The Impact of Inflation on Mortgage Rates and Homebuying Power

In today’s economic climate, inflation has become a hot topic, especially for potential homebuyers. Understanding how inflation affects mortgage rates and your homebuying power is crucial. Let’s see how it can impact your journey to homeownership.

What is Inflation?

First and foremost, inflation refers to the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises. When inflation is high, purchasing power decreases because each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services.

How Inflation Affects Mortgage Rates

Inflation and mortgage rates are closely linked. Here’s how:

  1. Rising Interest Rates: When inflation increases, central banks often raise interest rates to curb spending and bring inflation under control. This, in turn, affects mortgage rates, which are tied to these broader interest rates.
  2. Higher Borrowing Costs: As mortgage rates rise, the cost of borrowing increases. For potential homebuyers, this means higher monthly mortgage payments for the same loan amount.

Impact on Homebuying Power

So, what does this mean for your homebuying power?

  1. Reduced Affordability: Higher mortgage rates translate to higher monthly payments. This means you might not qualify for as large a loan as you would in a low-rate environment. Consequently, the homes you can afford may be less expensive.
  2. Price Adjustments: On the flip side, higher mortgage rates can lead to a slowdown in home price appreciation or even a decline in home prices. Sellers might lower their prices to attract buyers who are now facing higher borrowing costs.

Strategies to Navigate Inflation’s Impact

Understanding the impact of inflation is essential, but knowing how to navigate it is even more important. Here are some strategies:

  1. Lock-in Rates: If you’re planning to buy a home soon, consider locking in your mortgage rate to protect against future rate increases.
  2. Adjust Your Budget: Reevaluate your budget to ensure you can comfortably afford the higher payments that come with increased rates.
  3. Explore Different Loan Options: Look into various mortgage products, such as adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), which might offer lower initial rates.
  4. Improve Your Credit Score: A higher credit score can help you secure better interest rates, even in an inflationary environment.

Long-Term Considerations

When thinking about the long-term implications of inflation on your homebuying journey, it’s essential to consider future financial stability. While higher mortgage rates may seem daunting now, owning a home can still be a solid investment over time. Real estate often appreciates, providing equity that can benefit you in the long run.

Inflation’s impact on mortgage rates and home buying power is undeniable. By staying informed and adjusting your strategies, you can still achieve your dream of homeownership despite the challenges. Remember, the key is to plan and be flexible in your approach.

12
Aug
By Fred Gruber
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 12th, 2024

With so little in the way of data releases following the previous week’s FOMC Rate Decision, we’re left with a small release schedule with Consumer Credit and U.S. Trade Deficit rounding up the reports. While relatively light indicators of the current health of the economy, they are still useful for determining more impactful trends in the future. Next week, the inflation data reports with the CPI and PPI are the ones to look out for. This time, these are the ones that will largely determine whether we see rate cuts this year, and lending partners have already been lowering rates in anticipation.

U.S. Trade Deficit

The trade deficit fell by 2.5% in June and receded from a 19-month high, owing to higher exports of aircraft and U.S.-produced oil and gas. The deficit dropped to $73.1 billion in June from $75.0 billion in May, government data showed.

Consumer Credit

Consumers increased the amount of credit they used in June at a slower rate, in a sign of rising financial stress on U.S. households. Consumer credit rose by a modest $8.9 billion in June, Federal Reserve data showed. Economists had expected a $9.7 billion increase, according to a Wall Street Journal forecast.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.36% with the current rate at 5.63%
  • 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.26% with the current rate at 6.47%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.01% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.09%
  • 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.02% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.10%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 233,000 compared to the expected claims of 240,000. The prior week landed at 250,000.

What’s Ahead

As we head towards the last quarter of the year, next week will unveil one of the most important inflation data reports of the year. The Federal Reserve has kept a tight lip on whether it intends to cut rates this year, but they have repeatedly said it was predicted based on inflation data. With the last two releases showing favorable results in achieving their goal, it has fueled speculation that rate cuts are on the horizon.