02
Oct
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 2, 2023

Last week, consumers were treated to several indicators on inflation that not only paint a picture of the economy’s health but also give the Fed more information to work with as it continues to aim for a soft landing.

August Sees a Slight Upward Trend in Inflation

This week, the personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes more volatile commodities like food and energy, increased 0.1 percent for the month. This is lower than the expected value of 0.2 percent, which indicates that the rising interest rates are starting to have an impact on the economy as the Fed continues to work to bring down inflation.

When compared to the previous 12 months, the price index was up 3.9 percent. This matched expectations and shows that inflation could finally be turning a corner. In addition, consumer spending rose 0.4 percent in August, which is down sharply from 0.9 percent in July. This is another indicator that higher interest rates are having an impact on consumers, who are finally pulling back on their spending.

As the month continues to progress, a lot of people will wait and see how the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady will impact the economy. Those looking for houses will probably be excited that interest rates were held steady, but it will be interesting to see how this decision impacts the fight against inflation.

Mortgage Rates Continue To Rise

This week, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at around 7.59 percent on average, which remains one of the highest rates in decades. In August, the average rate was 7.18 percent, indicating that rates have gone up sharply. This is also up slightly from the previous week, where the average 30-year fixed rate was 7.51 percent.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - October 2, 2023In addition, 15-year fixed mortgage rates have gone up as well, with the national average sitting at around 6.82 percent. This is up from last week, when the average 15-year fixed was 6.51 percent. This is also up slightly from August, where the rates hovered around 5.84 percent.

Because the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates study, many home buyers are hoping that mortgage rates will stabilize for a couple of months. It remains to be seen if that will happen.

Consumer Sentiment Might Be Stabilizing

The consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan is stabilizing, with numbers for September coming in at around 68.1. While this is a slight dip from August’s average numbers, the numbers for September are starting to rise.

Consumers might be starting to relax a little bit because inflationary numbers are starting to come down. For consumer sentiment to rise further, mortgage rates might have to come down without contributing to a spike in inflation or home prices.

This dip implies that despite the decreasing inflation rates, there remains a cloud of uncertainty amongst consumers. This could be attributed to potential interest rate hikes and a subtle slowing down of the job market. The prevailing mood is still optimistic, but the trend is shifting.

Looking To Next Week

Next week, the unemployment data is going to be released, as initial jobless numbers are going to come in. This is a key indicator because rising interest rates generally lead to more layoffs, which could jeopardize the Fed’s goal of a soft landing.

25
Sep
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 25, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 25, 2023Last week’s economic reports included readings on U.S. housing markets, housing starts and building permits, and the scheduled post-meeting statement from the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve. Data on sales of previously owned homes were released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

National Association of Home Builders: Rising Mortgage Rates Shake Builder Confidence

Homebuilders lost confidence in U.S. housing market conditions in September. September’s index reading was 45 as compared to the expected reading of 49.5 and August’s reading of 50. The combination of rising mortgage rates and high home prices presented obstacles to first-time and moderate-income buyers, while homeowners delayed listing homes for sale while awaiting lower mortgage rates. Low inventories of previously owned homes for sale drove would-be buyers to consider purchasing new homes.

Home builders offered price cuts averaging 25 percent to buyers in August; the price cuts were deeper in September with cuts averaging 32 percent. The NAHB said 59 percent of home builders offered buyer incentives other than price cuts.

Building Permits Rise as Housing Starts Fall in August

The Commerce Department reported 1.54 million building permits issued in August as compared to 1.44 million permits issued in July. The August reading exceeded analysts’ expectations of 1.45 million building permits issued in August. Housing starts fell to 1.28 million starts in August as compared to July’s reading of 1.44 million starts and the expected reading of 1.43 million housing starts in August.

Sales of previously owned homes fell to 4.04 million sales in August as compared to July’s reading of 4.07 million sales and the expected reading of 4.10 million sales.

Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Range Unchanged

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced its decision to leave the federal funds rate range unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent, but policymakers hinted at another rate hike before the end of 2023. FOMC members review a variety of domestic and global financial and economic data to inform their decision-making process.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported fixed mortgage rates above 7 percent last week. The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was one basis point higher at 7.19 percent. The average rate for 15-year mortgages rose by three basis points to 6.54 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 201,000 claims last week as compared to the previous week’s reading of 221,000 new claims and the expected reading of 225,000 claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on new home sales, S&P Case-Shiller home price indices,  the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech, and reports on inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

 

18
Sep
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 18, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 18, 2023The previous week offered a blend of economic updates, encompassing data on inflation trends, the pulse of consumer sentiment, and the weekly oscillations in mortgage rates and unemployment claims.

August Sees a Slight Upward Trend in Inflation

The latest data on monthly inflation was made public on September 13th, revealing that core inflation in August experienced a jump of 0.3 percent over its July reading. This number is a tad above the anticipated 0.2 percent and also overshadows July’s reading, which was set at 0.2 percent relative to the preceding month. Drawing from the Consumer Price Index, August witnessed a year-over-year inflation of 3.7 percent.

In a broader perspective, the inflation rate observed a 2.4 percent increase in the past quarter when compared to the same timeframe a year ago. This is a downward shift from the 5.0 percent recorded in the previous quarter and marks the most modest inflation rate since March of 2021. As September progresses, all attention will turn to the Federal Reserve’s impending meeting. Given that the current inflation is above the Fed’s target of 2.0 percent, speculations are circulating about whether an interest rate rise is on the horizon or if the existing rate adjustments will be given more time to work.

A Shift in Mortgage Rates and Employment Dynamics

The current 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovers around 7.51 percent, one of the highest rates seen in two decades. This is an upward jump from August, where the rates averaged at 7.18 percent. This trend is impacting potential homeowners. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands close to 6.51 percent, mirroring August’s average, which rounded off at 6.55 percent.

Comparing the current mortgage figures to those of the previous week, there’s been a marginal decline in the 30-year fixed rate from 7.55 percent to 7.51 percent. The 15-year fixed rate remains relatively stable at 6.51 percent, with the past week’s average being 6.52 percent. These rising interest rates seem to be impacting in the broader economy, with a projected 6.4 million individuals unemployed, translating to a 3.8 percent rate. The US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor and Statistics pinpointed 1.8 million claims for unemployment benefits in August.

Consumer Sentiment: A Mild Dip

The University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment report for the month, showing a slight drop in consumer optimism. While August’s index stood at 69.5, September witnessed a dip, bringing it down to 67.7.

This dip implies that despite the decreasing inflation rates, there remains a cloud of uncertainty amongst consumers. This could be attributed to potential interest rate hikes and a subtle slowing down of the job market. The prevailing mood is still optimistic, but the trend is shifting.

Looking Forward

The next week promises updates on mortgage rates, while September 20th is the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. The focal point for many will be the Fed’s decision on the interest rates—whether they opt for another raise or choose to hold them steady for the upcoming period.