Jobless Claims

Last week’s scheduled economic reporting was limited due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Monday. The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Report

The Beige Book report is a summary of information supplied to Federal Reserve policymakers by their business and professional contacts. Highlights of September’s Beige Book report included:

• Accelerated leisure spending by consumers boosted economic growth during July and August.

• Non-essential retail sales slowed, but the economy was boosted by a final stage of post-COVID-19 pent-up demand.

• Prices for consumer goods fell faster than in many other sectors.

• Auto sales rose due to better inventories available to consumers but increased sales were not connected with rising consumer demand for vehicles.

• Rising business costs reduced profit margins.

The Beige Book report is published eight times a year before scheduled meetings of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week; rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 7.12 percent and were six basis points lower than in the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were three basis points lower and averaged 6.52 percent.

Initial jobless claims were lower with 216,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 229,000 initial jobless claims filed. Analysts expected a reading of 230,000 new jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation, U.S. retail sales, and the preliminary monthly report on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, consumer sentiment, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Inflation Rate Holds Steady in July

Month-to-month inflation rose at a pace of 0.20 percent in July and met analysts’ expectations. There was no change in the pace of month-to-month inflation from June’s reading of 0.20 percent growth. The Consumer Price Index also reported that year-over-year inflation reached 9.10 percent, which was the highest reading since reaching a 40-year high in mid-2022.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, was unchanged from June’s month-to-month pace of 0.20 percent growth. July’s month-to-month reading matched analysts’ expectations. Year-over-year core inflation dipped slightly to 4.70 percent in July as compared to June’s reading of 4.80 percent year-over-year inflation.

Federal Reserve leaders said that they would continue monitoring domestic and global economic developments along with financial and economic data before determining whether or not to raise the Fed’s key interest rate range.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates for the third consecutive week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage approached seven percent and rose by six basis points to 6.96 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by nine basis points to 6.34 percent.

248,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week, which surpassed expectations of 231,000 new claims filed and the previous week’s reading of 227,000 first-tine jobless claims filed.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey

In other news, the University of Michigan released its monthly preliminary reading on U.S. consumer sentiment.

Consumer sentiment rose to an index reading of 72.0 in August as compared to the July reading of 71.6.  The majority of.consumers surveyed indicated that the economy improved in the three months leading up to the survey., Component readings included consumer sentiment index readings for current economic conditions and economic conditions within the next six months. The survey reading for consumer sentiment about economic conditions over the next six months fell to an index reading of  67.3 from the July reading of 68.3 Readings over 50 indicate that most consumers are confident about current economic conditions.

Joanne Hsu, the University of Michigan’s director of consumer surveys, said: “…In general, consumers perceived few differences in the economic environment from last month, but they saw substantial improvement relative to just three months ago.”

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes reading on housing starts and building permits issued, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. 

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on the Fed’s interest rate decision, S&P Case-Shiller’s Home Price Indices, sales of new homes, and pending home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

The Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate range to 5.25 to 5.50 percent; this announcement signaled that rates for home loans and unsecured credit would also rise.

S&P Case-Shiller Reports Slower Home Price Growth  in May

Average  U.S. home prices fell in May according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. Home prices were -1.70 percent lower as compared to an expected dip of -1.90 percent and April’s reading of -1.70 percent. The top three cities reporting the highest pace of year-over-year home price growth were Chicago, Illinois with home price growth of 4.60 percent; Cleveland Ohio, where home prices grew by 3.90 percent, and New York City, where home prices rose by 3.50 percent.

Sales of previously owned homes fell due to high demand and slim supplies of homes for sale. Homeowners stayed on the sidelines while waiting for lower mortgage rates, but prospective buyers didn’t seem discouraged by rising rates, which recently approached 7 percent.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Case-Shiller Indices, said that the rally in U.S. home prices continued in May.

New home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 697,000 sales in June. Analysts estimated a pace of 725,000 sales and May’s reading showed a pace of 715,000 new home sales. Higher home prices in popular metro areas and rising mortgage rates created affordability challenges for first-time and moderate-income home buyers.

In related news, the FHFA Home Price Index reported that home price growth for homes owned and sold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 0.70 percent in May and was unchanged from April’s pace of home price growth. The FHFA reported year-over-year home price growth of 2.80 percent.

Mortgage Rates Rise as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates for the fourth consecutive week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by three basis points to 6.81 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was five basis points higher at 6.11 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 221,000 claims as compared to the previous week’s reading of 228,000 claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on construction spending,  public and private-sector payrolls, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims will also be released.