Mortgage Rates

With the continued delay in the CPI and PCE inflation data, this week’s headlines will focus on unemployment figures. Job reports show an increase of 178,000 workers, though this growth is unlikely to persist given the current state of the economy. Unemployment data has also shown a positive release, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous report.

Since the Federal Reserve discontinued rate cuts in December, the outlook remains highly uncertain as it continues to grapple with numerous aspects of the current economic environment.

Unemployment Data
The U.S. added a greater-than-expected 178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell a tick to 4.3%, signs that the labor market is holding firm even as the economy undergoes another spasm of uncertainty tied to the Iran war. The increase in employment in March, the biggest in 15 months, was padded by the return of 31,000 striking nurses. Better weather last month may have also helped.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02%, with the current rate at 5.77%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08%, with the current rate at 6.46%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.19%, with current rates at 5.91%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.19%, with current rates at 5.93%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 202,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The prior week landed at 211,000.

What’s Ahead
We should see the PCE index data (the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation) as well as CPI data released. 

With the current state of affairs, it is not surprising that a majority of the releases scheduled for this week have been delayed until next week. The only notable report set to be released is the consumer sentiment report, which has been showing month-to-month declines.

This has led to a very light week, with a heavy slate of inflation data scheduled for release next week. The PCE Index and CPI are both scheduled for next week.

Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply to 53.3 in March 2026, down from the preliminary estimate of 55.5 and below February’s 56.6. This places sentiment near record lows observed at the end of 2025, with declines spanning all age groups and political affiliations.

Households with middle and higher incomes, as well as those with stock wealth, experienced the steepest drops in confidence. The downturn reflects the impact of rising gas prices and financial market volatility, both exacerbated by the ongoing Iran conflict.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.21%, with the current rate at 5.75%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.16%, with the current rate at 6.38%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.10%, with current rates at 6.10%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.11%, with current rates at 6.12%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 210,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 205,000.

What’s Ahead
CPI and PCE Index data is set to release the next week along with other notable delayed releases such as unemployment data.

While delayed, the Producer Price Index has indicated that the war in Iran has pushed producer prices to new highs, as oil prices have surged amid the conflict, coming in at more than double the expected value. It is unlikely we will see prices recede, even if there is a quick resolution. There will be long-term impacts that continue to keep gas prices elevated until then.

Outside of the influential PPI release, the schedule was relatively slim, with only further discussion of the FOMC rate decision, which largely focused on maintaining the status quo until more data and developments come to light.

Producer Price Index
The producer price index, a measure of pipeline costs that producers receive for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the so-called core PPI increased 0.5%.

For the all-items index, prices rose faster than the 0.5% pace in January. However, the core increase was less than the 0.8% for the prior month. On a 12-month basis, headline PPI inflation was at 3.4%, the most since February 2025, while core was at 3.9%, according to the BLS. The Federal Reserve targets inflation at 2%.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04%, with the current rate at 5.54%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.11%, with the current rate at 6.22%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.13%, with current rates at 6.00%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.12%, with current rates at 6.01%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 205,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 213,000.

What’s Ahead
Employment data, employment, wages, consumer confidence, and manufacturer reports such as the PMI are due next week without any delays.