Mortgage Rates

The inflation data for CPI and the PCE Index was intended to be released this upcoming week, but it has been delayed until the following week. Given that, the most important data for this week was the Jobs Report, which includes important figures such as the amount of job growth and wage gains in proportion to inflation.

This release has shown a rather dismal result in job growth, showing near-zero job gains—a major reduction compared to the previous two years during the same period. This is also followed by wage gains that have lagged behind inflation for a long time. This could spell significant issues when considering tariffs and inflation.

This will put a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue cutting rates in light of the more recent data releases.

Jobs Report
The U.S. labor market shrunk by 92,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), well below economist estimates of an addition of 55,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% while average hourly wages grew by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year.

Retail Sales
Sales at U.S. retailers fell in January for the first time in three months as Winter Storm Fern depressed spending at car dealers, gas stations and brick-and-mortar stores. Retail sales slid 0.2% in the first month of the year, the government said Friday. The report had been delayed by recent lapses in federal funding.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01%, with the current rate at 5.43%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02%, with the current rate at 6.00%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.10%, with current rates at 5.72%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.10%, with current rates at 5.74%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 213,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 213,000.

What’s Ahead
Next week, the delayed CPI and PCE data is scheduled to be released, along with a rate decision by the Federal Reserve. This is an unusual combination, as inflation data has typically been released prior to the rate decision.

The release schedules of both the PPI and CPI have landed in the same week, but recently they have been shifted off kilter, with the PPI set to release the prior week. Limited information from the Core PPI—which came in higher than expected—was released, with the full data release delayed and likely to be published alongside the CPI data. Outside of these two releases, the unemployment data that was set to be released this week has also been delayed and is now due next week. This leaves Consumer Confidence as the only major release, which broke a six-month downtrend, showing a more positive reception this time around.

Consumer Confidence
For months, economists have been worried that the U.S. was on the cusp of a recession, with a weak labor market despite relatively stable economic growth. The feeling was that a “low-hire, low-fire” economy could quickly deteriorate into more layoffs. Workers would then have trouble finding new work, leading to a sharp uptick in the unemployment rate and an economic downturn.

Core PPI (Only)
The cost of wholesale goods and services rose at an accelerated pace in January for the second month in a row, suggesting persistent inflation could dog the economy at least through the early part of the new year. Producer prices rose 0.5% in January, according to an index published by the government. It was the biggest increase in four months and topped the 0.3% Wall Street forecast.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.09%, with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03%, with the current rate at 5.98%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.01%, with current rates at 5.62%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.01%, with current rates at 5.64%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 212,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 208,000.

What’s Ahead
The Consumer Price Index, Unemployment Data, and the rest of the Producer Price Index data is set to be released in the following week.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator has come in showing that inflation is still running hotter than expected. This creates a difficult position for the Federal Reserve as it tries to balance interest rate cuts while managing inflation at the same time. Despite previous rate adjustments, inflation has remained stubbornly high.

It remains to be seen whether any monetary policy will be able to curb the recent trend as it stands. This was also accompanied by a 0.4% increase in personal income, which has been the status quo for some time now. Inflation outpacing wage growth has been a major concern on most consumers’ minds. Lastly, GDP has grown by an unexpected amount, showing that the economy still has room for growth for the foreseeable future.

GDP
The U.S. expanded at a subpar 1.4% annual pace in the fourth quarter of 2025, depressed by a long federal shutdown that caused government spending to plunge. Still, the economy grew at a solid 2.2% rate for all of 2025, a fifth straight year of above-average growth, the latest report on U.S. gross domestic product showed. GDP is the official scorecard for the economy.

PCE Index
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed that prices rose close to 3% in 2025, leaving the central bank with more work to do to get cost-of-living increases back down to prepandemic lows. The personal consumption expenditures index rose 0.4% in December, the government said Friday in a report delayed by federal shutdowns.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09%, with the current rate at 5.35%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08%, with the current rate at 6.01%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with current rates at 5.63%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with current rates at 5.65%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 206,000 compared to the expected claims of 223,000. The prior week landed at 229,000.

What’s Ahead
Unemployment data is set to be released next week, along with a slew of additional reports. This has become an increasingly important topic in recent weeks.