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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 5, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 5, 2023

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, consumer sentiment, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. 

 

Inflation Rates Are Similar in August

Month-to-month, the inflation rate holds relatively steady at 3.18 percent. This is slightly up when compared to 2.97 percent last month; however, it is significantly lower than the rate of 8.52 percent last year. When compared to the long-term average, inflation is trending in the right direction, as the long-term average is 3.2 percent.

Inflation rose at a pace of 0.20 percent in July and met analysts’ expectations. There was no change in the pace of month-to-month inflation from June’s reading of 0.20 percent growth. The Consumer Price Index also reported that year-over-year inflation reached 9.10 percent, which was the highest reading since reaching a 40-year high in mid-2022.

 

While we still wait for core inflation, experts predict it to come in at around 3.38 percent. Core inflation, also known as the CPI, excludes food and fuel prices, which are historically volatile. If core inflation comes in at 3.38 percent, this would be significantly lower than the July reading of 4.7 percent.

 

Right now, it is unclear whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, as they are still waiting for other metrics, including the core inflation above.

 

Mortgage Rates Rise, Job Market Cools

The 30-year fixed, the preferred metric for mortgage rates, remains at around 7.53 percent. These are the highest mortgage rates of the last 20 years. Rates continue to rise when compared to July’s mortgage rates, which were just under 7 percent. This continues to put pressure on those interested in purchasing homes. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate is about 6.81 percent. This is slightly higher than the 15-year fixed for August, which was 6.55 percent on average.

 

When comparing these mortgage rates to last week, the 30-year fixed has gone up. It was 7.23 percent, on average, last week, and has jumped to 7.53 percent this week. The average rate for a 15-year fixed is 6.81 percent this week, which is slightly higher than last week, where the average 15-year fixed was 6.55 percent.

 

It appears that the increase in interest rates is finally having an impact on the job market. Unemployment rose to 3.8 percent, and the economy added 187,000 jobs in August. While these are still historically solid numbers, it is clear that the job market is cooling, when compared to July.


University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey 

The University of Michigan released its monthly consumer sentiment report, and consumer sentiment has dropped slightly when compared to last month. The index reading was 72.0 in July, but it dropped to 69.5 in August. The overall sentiment regarding the economy also dropped from 76.6 in July to 75.7 in August. 

 

These numbers reflect that consumers are still a bit wary of economic conditions. While inflation continues to come down, many consumers are likely still nervous about the increase in interest rates and the cooling job market. While sentiment remains positive, there is some cooling in the economy.

 

What’s Ahead

During the next week, mortgage rates will get an update, and the Federal Reserve will receive some new metrics regarding the economy. These numbers will be very important for the Fed, as it decides whether it will raise interest rates again in September in an attempt to cool inflation further.

Understanding the Mechanics of a HELOC Loan

For many homeowners, a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) can be an attractive financial tool, offering a flexible way to access funds while leveraging their property’s equity. A HELOC works differently from a traditional home loan or mortgage, providing borrowers with a revolving credit line that they can draw from as needed.

What is a HELOC?

A Home Equity Line of Credit is a type of loan that allows homeowners to borrow against the equity they have built in their property. Equity is the difference between the home’s current market value and the outstanding mortgage balance. HELOCs are typically offered by banks, credit unions, and other financial institutions and are often regarded as a “second mortgage.”

How does a HELOC work?

A HELOC operates like a credit card or a checking account with a pre-approved limit. When you apply for a HELOC, the lender assesses your creditworthiness and the amount of equity you have in your home to determine your credit limit. This limit is typically a percentage of the home’s appraised value, minus any existing mortgage.

Once approved, borrowers can access the funds as needed during the “draw period,” which typically lasts around 5 to 10 years. During this time, you can borrow and repay the funds multiple times, just like using a credit card. You only pay interest on the amount you have withdrawn.

Interest Rates and Repayment

HELOCs usually have variable interest rates, which means that the rate can fluctuate with changes in the market index. The interest rates are generally lower than those of credit cards and other unsecured loans, making a HELOC an appealing option for consolidating higher-interest debts or funding significant expenses, such as home renovations or educational costs.

During the draw period, borrowers are usually required to make interest-only payments each month. However, some lenders may allow borrowers to make both principal and interest payments. During this phase, borrowers can no longer withdraw funds and must repay both principal and interest, often leading to higher monthly payments.

Advantages of a HELOC

Flexibility: Borrowers have the freedom to use the funds for various purposes, from home improvements and debt consolidation to emergency expenses and educational costs.

Lower interest rates: Compared to other forms of credit, HELOCs often offer more favorable interest rates, making it a cost-effective financing option for eligible homeowners.

Tax benefits: In some cases, the interest paid on a HELOC may be tax-deductible, but it’s essential to consult a tax advisor to understand the specifics of your situation.

A Home Equity Line of Credit can be an excellent way for homeowners to access funds for various financial needs. By understanding how a HELOC works, its benefits, and potential risks, borrowers can make informed decisions about whether it suits their financial goals and circumstances.

Responsible use, careful planning, and regular review of your financial situation are essential to make the most of this powerful financial tool and avoid potential pitfalls. As always, it’s advisable to seek professional financial advice before making any major financial decisions.

Buying Vs. Building a House

Buying Vs. Building a HouseDeciding whether to buy or build a house can be a complex decision that depends on several factors. Here are some pros and cons to consider:

Pros of Buying a House:

Convenience: Buying a house is generally quicker and more convenient than building one. You can move in as soon as you close the deal, without having to wait for construction to be completed.

Location: When you buy a house, you have the opportunity to choose a home in an established neighborhood with existing amenities such as schools, parks, shopping centers, and other essential services. You can choose a location that is convenient for your lifestyle.

Cost: Depending on the location, buying a house may be less expensive than building a new one. You can often find great deals on homes that have been on the market for a while, or in areas where the real estate market is more favorable to buyers.

No Hassle of Design and Construction:
When you buy a house, you don’t have to worry about designing the home or supervising construction. You can focus on personalizing the house according to your taste, rather than starting from scratch.

Resale Value: Buying an established home often means it already has a resale value, making it easier to sell in the future.

Cons of Buying a House:

Limited Customization: When you buy an existing house, you may have limited options for customization. You’ll need to accept the home’s layout, features, and design unless you’re willing to invest additional time and money to make renovations.

Unpredictable Market: Real estate markets can be unpredictable, and the value of your home may fluctuate depending on economic conditions. There’s always a risk that the value of your home may decrease in the future.

Maintenance: As a homeowner, you’ll be responsible for maintaining and repairing the home, which can be costly. Older homes may require more maintenance than newer ones, which can add up over time.

Hidden Problems: Even with a thorough home inspection, there may be hidden problems with the house that you only discover after moving in, such as foundation issues, electrical problems, or water damage.

Pros of Building a House

Customization: You can design the house to your exact specifications, ensuring that it meets your unique needs and preferences.

New materials and technology: You can take advantage of the latest building materials and technology, which can make the house more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly.

No hidden problems: Since the house is new, there should be fewer hidden issues or problems to deal with.

Cons of Building a House

Cost: Building a house can be more expensive than buying an existing one, especially if you choose high-end materials or features.

Time-consuming: Building a house can take months or even years to complete, which means you’ll need to be patient and flexible.

Uncertainty: There may be unexpected delays or complications during the construction process, which can be frustrating.

Buying a house can be a smart and practical option for many people, especially those who prioritize convenience, location, and cost savings, buying a house is a big decision that requires careful consideration of both the advantages and disadvantages. It’s important to do your research and weigh your options before deciding.