Financial Report

With the release of the CPI and PPI we received a clearer picture of what’s ahead. With the inflation numbers for CPI (Consumer Price Index) arriving a bit warmer than expected, there was some speculation that it could cause some hesitation from the Federal Reserve on reducing rates for this year.

We also were able to see the Year-over-Year CPI inflation rates with those as well coming in at slightly higher than expected. The projected outlook for the first quarter is likely that the Federal Reserve will hold its position and continue with maintaining interest rates as they have.

Although lending rates have drastically come down, much of it will depend on where the Federal Reserve moves this quarter or the next.

Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices rose somewhat faster at the end of 2023 and interrupted a slowdown in inflation, but the recent evidence still points to a further deceleration in the months ahead. The consumer price index rose 0.3% in December to mark the biggest gain in three months.

The rate of inflation over the past year also moved up to 3.4% from 3.1% in the prior month.

Producer Price Index

U.S. wholesale prices fell in December for the third month in a row, pointing to decelerating inflation in the months ahead.

The wholesale report might keep those hopes alive, especially since a weak PPI often portends a mild reading in the PCE index. That’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.02% with the current rate at 5.87%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase by 0.04% with the current rate at 6.66%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a -0.16% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.00%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a -0.15% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.01%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 202,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week was 202,000.

What’s Ahead

After the FOMC minutes for this week, next week should be a light release week with one major report being the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index which will show the inflation rates over December.

With the first FOMC minutes of the year, it sets the tone of the potential moves the Federal Reserve will make, with them remaining firm in their current stance of not employing any rate cuts, however given the more recent end of year reports, there is a likelihood that rate cuts will start this year. The last change in rates was in July of last year. The second most important report also being the final PMI (Manufacturing) numbers, which has largely met expectations without any irregularities.

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI

Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 47.9 in December 2023 from a preliminary of 48.2, and compared to 49.4 in November, pointing to a bigger deterioration in manufacturing conditions.

FOMC Minutes

According to the minutes, several officials said that the Fed might have to hold its benchmark rate steady “for longer than they currently anticipated,” while a number of officials pushed for some easing.

The dovish officials “highlighted the uncertainty associated with how long a restrictive monetary policy stance would need to be maintained, and pointed to the downside risks to the economy that would be associated with an overly restrictive stance,” according to the minutes.

Non-farm Payrolls

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% in December, the government said Friday, keeping it near a half century low.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 5.89%
• 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week increase by 0.01% with the current rate at 6.62%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a 0.08% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.16%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a 0.08% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.16%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 202,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week was 216,000.

What’s Ahead

After the FOMC minutes for this week, next week will primarily be a light release week with one major report being the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index which will show the inflation rates over December.

With the New Year, the final week only featured the normal reports of Jobless Claims, S&P Shiller Home Price Index (YoY), and the Chicago Business Barometer. All of them will have limited impact compared to the GDP and the Inflation data reports that have already been released.

S&P Shiller Home Price Index (YoY)

For the ninth consecutive month, home prices in prominent U.S. metropolitan regions have surged, reaching an all-time high. This increase is attributed to an ongoing shortage of available homes for sale. In October, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house-price index, after seasonal adjustments, showed a 0.6% rise compared to the preceding month.

Chicago Business Barometer

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, fell 8.9 index points to 46.9 in December.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 50 reading. 

The index had jumped to 55.8 in November, the highest level in 17 months, after the end of the United Auto Workers strike.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.02% with the current rate at 5.93%
• 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.06% with the current rate at 6.61%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a -0.04% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.08%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a -0.04% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.09%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 218,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week was 206,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week will be a light release week with one major report being the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, which will show the inflation rates over December.