06
Nov
By Fred Gruber
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Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 6, 2023

The most important data of the quarter was released, signaling the direction for many markets and where economic policy may be headed. Jerome Powell as well as other members of the Federal Reserve spoke about the state of economic policy, informing many parties about their decisions to remain hawkish or dovish in their approach. Further rate hikes could tell a story that inflation is not yet under control and the Federal Reserve feels the need to continue these rate hikes, which will have a significant impact on the lending markets as a whole.

FOMC Rate Decision
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized uncertainty over whether the Fed has tightened enough to bring down inflation, skeptics still believe policymakers have finished hiking rates. Jerome Powell had several opportunities to make his intentions clear about further rate hikes but had passed on most of them. Analysts largely agree that their recent dovish approach is signaling the end of rate hikes.

  • Central bank’s policy rate remains in the 5.25%-5.50% range.
  • The Fed says the economy grew at a ‘strong’ pace in the third quarter.

Key point: Two rate decision meetings without a hike may signal a period in which the economy shows the reduction in inflation the FED has been seeking, and relief in interest rates for lending parties.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week increase by 00% with the current rate at 7.03%.
  • 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.03% with the current rate at 76%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates increased week to week seeing a -0.61% decrease for this week. Current rates at 71%
  • 30-Yr VA rates increased week to week seeing a -0.63% decrease for this week. Current rates at 70%

Nonfarm Payrolls
Nonfarm Payrolls measure the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 for the month, against the consensus forecast for a rise of 170,000. That was a sharp decline from the gain of 297,000 in September.

 Job Claims
The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed unemployment rolls rising to a six-month high.

Initial Claims have increased by 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 214,000. The prior week was 211,000.

ISM Manufacturing Data
ISM Manufacturing Data was released this week, much of it impacting many sectors including manufacturing, home building, and commercial building. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey rose to 49.0% last month from 47.8% in August. It was the third straight increase, and the index matched a 10-month high.

  • Production barometer increased 2.5 points to 52.5% and was positive for the second month in a row.
  • The prices index, a measure of inflation, fell 4.6 points to a fairly low 43.8%. Higher oil prices in the future may impact this statistic.
  • The index of new orders rose 2.4 points to 49.2%. So far the auto industry strike has had little impact.

What’s Ahead
We’ll have a relatively light week after the FOMC rate decision meetings and manufacturing release, with the only notable economic reports being Consumer Credit and Wholesale Inventories.

24
Apr
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 24, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 24, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home builder confidence and weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

NAHB: Home builder confidence increases in April

The National Association of Home Builders reported that builder confidence in current housing market conditions rose by one point to an index reading of 45 in April. April’s reading was the fourth consecutive month showing increasing builder confidence.  The March and April index readings of 44 and 45 were the strongest since September 2022. A year ago the homebuilder confidence reading was 77.

Component readings for homebuilder confidence in market conditions were mixed. Builder confidence in current housing market conditions rose two points; builder confidence in expected sales over the next six months rose three points and builder confidence in prospective buyer traffic in new housing developments was unchanged from March.

The outlook for previously-owned homes was less clear. Robert Dietz, the chief economist for the NAHB, said: “Homebuilders are confident about future sales as buyers compete for the low inventory of available pre-owned homes.” Mr. Dietz also said that the shortage of previously-owned homes for sale was caused in part by homeowners not wanting to give up their current low mortgage rates.

Homebuilders are offering buyer incentives; 30 percent of homebuilders lowered prices on new homes by an average discount of six percent. Mr. Dietz said, “ Currently one-third of the housing inventory is new construction as compared to the historical norm of a little more than ten percent.” Mr. Dietz said that there is no evidence that pressure on the regional bank system has made the lending environment worse for builders and land developers.

Mortgage rates and jobless claims rise

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week. The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 12 basis points to 6.39 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 22 basis points to 5.76 percent.

245,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the expected reading of 244,000 first-time claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 240,000 first-time claims filed. 1.87 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.80 million ongoing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on housing markets and home prices. Data on new home sales and pending home sales will be published along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

10
Apr
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 10, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 10, 2023

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on construction spending and labor sector readings on employment and the national unemployment rate for March. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Commerce Department: February Construction Spending Falls

The U.S. Commerce Department reported less construction spending in February than in January as construction spending fell by 0.10 percent to a year-over-year reading of $1.844 trillion for all types of construction. Year-over-year construction spending increased by 5.20 percent.  While total construction spending fell in February, residential construction spending increased.

Spending on single-family home construction slowed due to builders’ concerns over materials costs, supply chains, and a possible economic recession.  Seasonal weather conditions can also contribute to less construction spending during winter. Homebuilders continue to focus on high-end homes, which leaves limited options for first-time and moderate-income homebuyers. High demand for homes and increasing numbers of cash buyers are competing with owner-occupant home buyers who require mortgages to finance their homes.

High home prices and strict mortgage lending standards caused some would-be buyers to rent homes. Multi-family residential construction increased as demand for rental housing expends.

Mortgage Rates Mixed as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported a lower average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages last week. Rates fell by four basis points to 6.28 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by eight basis points to 5.64 percent. Initial jobless claims fell to 228,000 new claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 200,000 new claims filed and the previous week’s reading of 246,000 initial jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were unchanged at 228,000 claims filed.

During March the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.50 percent as compared to the expected rate of 3.60 percent and February’s jobless rate of 3.60 percent.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.