19
Dec
By First Rate Financial Group
Real Estate

How Will Interest Rates Affect the Market in 2019?

How Will Interest Rates Affect the Market in 2019Forbes and other reputable publications have predicted a continued rise in interest rates over 2019. The initial shock of the Fed’s action caused a slowdown in real estate markets over the final part of 2018. As the shock wears off, experts are divided as to whether more expensive money will continue to translate into lower housing starts and occupancy rates for primary markets.

Many experts believe that the rising 2018 interest rates have not yet baked themselves into the real estate market. They point to past instances of relatively high real estate hikes and the slower uptake into the property market the following year. Proponents of fast action uptake point to a much closer relationship between federal interest rates and the consumer real estate market.

The Edge Of The Housing Affordability Curve

Most consumers were hanging on the edge of housing affordability during the time of low interest rates, this set of experts argues. The second that the Fed raised interest rates, a portion of Millennials immediately became unable to buy a first house or even retain occupancy in more expensive real estate markets such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York.

The Fed’s Limited Reach?

The Fed controls short-term rates, but the market controls long-term rates. Over time, these long-term interest rates will be much more influential on how the real estate market will perform over the next five years. Most experts expect commercial banks to try to hold down long-term interest rates to maintain a balance between supply and demand in new housing starts. They stand to lose money over the next few quarters if they cannot accomplish this. However, the banks may struggle to control long term interest rates due to news of the Fed raising interest rates which may scare some people out of the market.

Millennials and Secondary Markets Run The World

For those who want to draw a trend line moving forward, real estate activity in secondary markets may be a good leading indicator of how the rest of the market will behave. Watching cities such as Nashville, San Diego, San Jose and Dallas may provide insights as to just how many displaced Millennials will be able to access the housing market in the United States over the next few years. This is the core group that will control housing prices in America, so they are definitely the ones to watch in terms of movement.

For up to date financial information, be sure to contact your trusted mortgage professional.

17
Dec
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 17th, 2018

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 17th, 2018Last week’s economic reports included readings on inflation and retail sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Retail Sales Grow, Inflation Unchanged in November

November retail sales grew by 0.20 percent in November as compared to expectations of 0.10 percent and October’s reading of 1.10 percent growth. Core retail sales, which exclude automotive sales, grew by 0.20 percent and met expectations. Analysts said online stores pushed retail sales growth in November.

Inflation held steady in November as expected. Inflation grew by 0.30 percent in October. Core inflation, which excludes volatile fuel and food sectors, rose by 0.20 percent, which matched October’s reading. Lower fuel prices contributed to the higher Core Price Index reading.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week, which caused an uptick in demand for homes. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped by 12 basis points and averaged 4.63 percent. Mortgage rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages dropped 14 basis points and averaged 4.07 percent.

Rates s for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.06 percent and were three basis points lower than the prior week. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Last week’s average mortgage rates were the lowest in three months and prompted would-be be home buyers to enter the market.

First-time Jobless claims fell to 206,000 new claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 233,000 new jobless claims filed. Analysts expected 226,000 new claims to be filed. The surge in unemployment claims during the prior week was connected to an early Thanksgiving holiday.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, Commerce Department reports on housing starts and building permits issued. Sales of previously owned homes will be reported.

The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee will issue its post-meeting statement along with economic projections for 2019. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will be released along with a monthly report on consumer sentiment.

30
Nov
By First Rate Financial Group
Mortgage

Home Buying Power Remains In Motion Depsite Rising Mortgage Rates

Home Buying Power Remains In Motion Depsite Rising Mortgage RatesThe real estate market does not occupy a space outside the laws of physics. As Sir Isaac Newton so aptly theorized, “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” When applying the English physicist’s Third Law to today’s rising mortgage rates, anticipating the reaction can be valuable information if you are planning to buy or sell a home or commercial property.

At first blush, residential home buyers and commercial property investors might expect the “opposite” reaction to impact buying power negatively. The initial data might lead many to believe that premise.

How Home Buyers Reacted To Rate Hikes

According to Realtor.com, the average cost to American mortgage holders increased by 15.8 percent from Sept. 2017 to Sept. 2018. In dollars, that totaled about $223, reportedly from $1,413 to $1,636 when considered against the median home at $294,900. That so-called reaction seems to indicate a loss of buying power for everyday homeowners.

Naturally, these increases were higher in top real estate markets with New York at $545 increase and Seattle at $533 where the median home costs $529,900 and $550,045 respectively. The top 20 housing markets incurred a total 68 percent of the increases year-over-year. Compounding the reaction to rising rates, many pundits are claiming the Fed’s rate hikes are creating stock market volatility.

All of these numbers seem to indicate a gloomy opposite reaction to mortgage rate increases. Or do they?

Real Estate Market Remains In Motion

Much of that thinking stems from looking at increased costs as if they somehow prohibit home buyers from making purchases. But the very fact that Americans are purchasing homes and paying somewhat higher monthly mortgage premiums indicates people enjoy the required buying power. Yes, rates have increased since the Great Recession, but that was always the plan.  

Keep in mind that Newton has a few other applicable laws of physics as well. For example, “A body in motion remains in motion.” The Fed’s decision to finally raise rates was held back by a sluggish recovery. Today’s robust economy has prompted the long overdue interest rate hikes, but they are still quite low.

If, for example, mortgage rate increases resulted in a stagnant housing or commercial real estate market, that might be considered an adverse reaction. However, single-family homes and investment properties are in high demand.

That should indicate that the booming economy has improved buying power ahead of mortgage rate increases. Simply put, Americans seem to be ahead in the real estate game.

For everyday families interested in starter homes, homeowners eyeing a more substantial property or commercial investors looking to get into the market, a smart equal and opposite reaction to rate increases may be to get in quickly and enjoy today’s low rates before the next planned increase.

Be sure to consult with your trusted mortgage professional for your best financing options.