23
Sep
By Fred Gruber
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 23rd, 2024

The long-awaited week has come and within expectations, the Federal Reserve has decided to reduce interest rates for central banks by 50 basis points. This is the bigger of the two options for a rate cut, with the lesser being 25 basis points. The impact of this cannot be understated as this gives an official nod that the economy is in a good spot and inflation is under control, according to the Federal Reserve’s outlook on the data. The only black mark on the week of releases is the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators showing the economy has been in a slower trend for the past 6 months. The Federal Reserve, despite the rate cut, has continued to remain hard in its stance about not cutting rates too quickly. This will likely depend on future data.

Federal Reserve Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve cut its policy interest rate by half a percentage point on Wednesday, a more aggressive move than many economists expected. The central bank opted to start “with a bang,” said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capitol Economics.

U.S. Economic Indicators

The leading indicators for the U.S. economy sank 0.2% in August, the privately run Conference Board said Thursday. That is the sixth straight monthly decline. The index fell 0.6% in July. The leading index is a composite of 10 forward-looking components designed to show whether the economy is in danger of falling into recession and where the economy is headed in the near term.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of –0.12% with the current rate at 5.15%
  • 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.11% with the current rate at 6.09%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates saw a 0.02% increase for this week. Current rates at 5.70%
  • 30-Yr VA rates saw a 0.03% increase for this week. Current rates at 5.72%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 229,000. The prior week landed at 231,000.

What’s Ahead

Following the rate decision, we have another important inflation report with the PCI Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, which is followed up by the GDP Estimates for the year. Consumer Confidence should also play a role, albeit a much smaller one.

19
Sep
By Fred Gruber
Mortgage

The Impact of Interest Rate Changes on Your Mortgage Payment Over Time

When it comes to mortgages, interest rates play a crucial role in determining your monthly payments and the total cost of your loan. While fixed-rate mortgages offer stable payments, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) can fluctuate with market conditions, leading to significant variations in your financial obligations over time. Understanding how interest rate changes impact your mortgage can help you better prepare for the future.

Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgages

Fixed-rate mortgages offer a consistent interest rate throughout the life of the loan. This stability means your monthly payment remains unchanged, providing predictability and ease of budgeting. However, the trade-off is that fixed-rate loans often start with higher rates compared to the initial rates of ARMs.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), on the other hand, have interest rates that adjust periodically based on market conditions. ARMs usually come with an initial fixed-rate period, after which the rate changes at set intervals, such as annually. The fluctuations in ARMs can significantly impact your monthly payments and overall loan cost.

How Interest Rate Changes Affect Your Payments

  1. Initial Period Changes: Most ARMs start with a lower interest rate than fixed-rate mortgages, which can make them attractive to borrowers looking for lower initial payments. For instance, an ARM with a 3% initial rate might offer lower payments compared to a fixed-rate mortgage at 4%. However, after the initial period—often 5, 7, or 10 years—the rate adjusts based on a specified index plus a margin set by the lender.
  2. Adjustment Periods: When the rate adjusts, it can lead to significant changes in your monthly payments. For example, if your ARM adjusts from 3% to 5%, your monthly payment will increase accordingly. This change can be substantial, especially if the loan term is long or if rates rise significantly.
  3. Rate Caps: ARMs typically have caps that limit how much the interest rate can increase at each adjustment period and over the life of the loan. While these caps provide some protection, they do not eliminate the risk of higher payments. For example, if your ARM has a cap of 2% per adjustment period, your rate could increase by 2% at each adjustment, potentially leading to higher payments over time.

Financial Impact Scenarios

  1. Rising Interest Rates: In a scenario where interest rates rise steadily, an ARM can become increasingly expensive. If you started with a 3% ARM and rates rise to 6%, your payments will rise accordingly. For a $300,000 loan, this could mean an increase from approximately $1,264 to $1,798 per month after the initial fixed period, translating to an additional $535 per month or $6,420 per year.
  2. Stable or Declining Rates: Conversely, if interest rates remain stable or decline, an ARM may still offer lower payments compared to a fixed-rate mortgage. For example, if your ARM’s rate stays at 3% or falls slightly, you could benefit from lower payments compared to the fixed rate’s higher payments.
  3. Long-Term Costs: Over the life of the loan, ARMs can sometimes end up costing more than fixed-rate mortgages if interest rates rise significantly. For instance, over a 30-year term, frequent rate increases can add up, resulting in a higher total loan cost compared to a fixed-rate mortgage with a higher, but stable, interest rate.

Understanding how interest rate changes affect your mortgage payments is crucial for managing your financial future. While ARMs can offer lower initial rates and payments, they come with the risk of increased payments as rates adjust. Fixed-rate mortgages provide stability but might start with higher rates. By considering your long-term financial goals and potential interest rate trends, you can make an informed decision that aligns with your financial situation and risk tolerance.

16
Sep
By Fred Gruber
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 16th, 2024

The week for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision has finally come. This is the week everyone has been waiting which will decide whether we will see any rate cuts this year. There has been a lot of speculation that this will be the first rate cut and likely more in the future. With the Federal Reserve giving hints the data has been on track, the outcome of one seems very likely. With the previous week’s CPI and PPI statistics coming in, which both were slightly warmer than expected, the data still largely shows that inflation has been kept under control. This may affect the decision, but ultimately throughout the year, the data has been consistent with few surprises. The week rounded out with the Consumer Sentiment data reports showing favorable results, indicating that the current state of the economy is in a neutral position in the eyes of the average consumer.

Producer Price Index

U.S. wholesale prices showed a mild increase in August and reinforced the idea the rate of inflation is returning to low pre-pandemic levels. The moderate increase in wholesale costs follows a similarly mild rise in consumer prices last month. With inflation slowing, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates next week.

Consumer Price Index

The consumer price index rose a mild 0.2% in August, the government said Wednesday, in line with The Wall Street forecast. Yet a measure of prices that strips out volatile food and energy costs, known as the core rate, rose a somewhat stiffer 0.3%. That was a tick above the forecast and matched the biggest increase in five months.

Consumer Sentiment

The rise in sentiment, 0.54%, is the highest since May. Consumer sentiment rose to a four-month high in September, just ahead of the U.S. presidential election, as expectations about future inflation fell to the lowest level since 2020. Yet Americans are still “guarded” in their views about the economy.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of –0.20% with the current rate at 5.27%
  • 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.15% with the current rate at 6.20%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates saw a 0.01% increase for this week. Current rates at 5.68%
  • 30-Yr VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 5.69%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 232,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 228,000.

What’s Ahead

The FOMC Rate Decision will take place on Sunday of this upcoming week.