Mortgage Rates

Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes along with weekly data on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Home Sales Increase in November

Sales of new and previously-owned homes rose in November. The Commerce Department reported sales of new homes rose to 744,000 sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. October sales of new homes were revised to a year-over-year reading of 662,000 new homes sold, which was the lowest reading since the worst stage of the pandemic in April 2020.  Analysts expected a year-over-year reading of 766,000 new homes sold for November. The median price of new homes sold in October reached a record high of $416,900.The number of homes for sale fell by 8.50 percent between October and November and represented a 6.50 month supply of new homes for sale.

Sales of previously-owned homes also rose in November with 6.46 million sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. November’s reading fell short of the expected reading of 6.50 million sales of previously-owned homes but surpassed October’s reading of 6.34 million sales.

Rising numbers of mortgage applications indicated that demand for homes remains high, but mortgage rates are expected to rise in 2022. Given rising home prices, the additional challenge of higher mortgage rates will negatively impact affordability for some prospective home buyers.

Mortgage Rates Fall, Jobless Claims Data Mixed

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by seven basis points to 3.05 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.30 percent and were four basis points lower than for the previous week. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.37 percent and eight basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims held steady at 205,000 new claims filed last week. Analysts expected a reading of 206,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.86 million ongoing claims from the previous week’s reading of 1.87 million continuing jobless claims filed.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to an index reading of 70.6 and exceeded the expected reading of 70.4, which matched November’s reading.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and data on pending home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s scheduled economic news included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing market conditions. Reporting on housing starts and building permits was released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

NAHB: Home Builder Confidence Grows as Demand for Homes Increases

November’s national reading for home builder confidence in housing market conditions for single-family homes rose three points to an index reading of 83 and the expected reading of 80. Component readings for the national index were mixed. Builder confidence in home sales for the next six months was unchanged at an index reading of 84. Builder confidence in potential buyer traffic in new housing developments rose three points to an index reading of 68. Readings over 50 indicate that a majority of home builders were confident about housing market conditions.

High demand for homes continued, but builders faced ongoing obstacles including shortages of lots and labor. Robert Dietz, the chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, said: “ Lot availability is at multi-decade lows and the construction industry currently has more than 330,000 open positions.” Mr. Dietz urged policymakers to address these issues to enable builders to better meet the high demand for single-family homes.

Three of four regional readings for builder confidence in housing market conditions rose, while the Northeast’s reading fell to 69 in November from October’s reading of 73. The Midwest reading rose to 75 in November from October’s reading of 72. Homebuilder confidence in the South also rose three points to 87 in November. The Western region posted a two-point gain in builder confidence for an index reading of 87.

Housing starts fell by one million starts in October to 1.52 million starts on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Building permits issued in October rose to a pace of 1.65 million permits issued on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Housing starts and building permits issued do not always reflect builder confidence readings.

Mortgage Rates Rise as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher fixed mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose  12 basis points to 3.10 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages also rose 12 basis points and averaged 2.39 percent; the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell four basis points to an average rate of 2.49 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent. 

Initial jobless claims rose to 286,000 new claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 269,000 first-time claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims fell to 2.08 million claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 2.20 continuing jobless claims filed. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic readings include sales of new and previously-owned homes, reporting on inflation and consumer sentiment are also scheduled. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will be released in advance of the Thanksgiving holidays on Thursday and Friday.