15
Apr
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 14th, 2019

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 8th, 2019Last week’s economic readings included reports on inflation, mortgage rates, and first-time jobless claims. Monthly reporting on consumer sentiment was delayed.

Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises in March

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.40 percent in March, which matched expectations and surpassed February’s month-to -month reading of 0.20 percent growth. The March reading showed the highest consumer price growth in 14 months; higher rents, fuel and food prices contributed to month-to-month price gains in March.

The Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy sectors and was unchanged in March although 0.20 percent growth was expected. February’s reading showed 0.10 percent growth. Inflation increased 1.90 percent year over year.

Mortgage Rates Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week that stopped weeks of decreasing rates. Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 4.12 percent and rose four basis points. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.60 percent and were also four basis points higher than during the prior week. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages jumped 14 basis points to 3.80 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Freddie Mac reported fewer mortgage applications in response to higher rates. Potential homebuyers were sensitive to higher mortgage rates, but may not have to wait long for lower rates to return. Low 10-year Treasury yields suggested that mortgage rates are likely to fall and to remain lower during the peak home-buying season. Mortgage rates are expected to stay comparatively low throughout 2019 according to Freddie Mac.

New Jobless Claims Fall To Lowest Since 1969

First-time jobless claims fell last week to 196,000 initial claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 204,000 new claims filed. Last week’s reading was the first to fall below 200,000 initial claims since 1969 and provided another sign of strong labor markets.

Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes Released

The Federal Reserve released minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March. The minutes explained the Committee’s reversal of its plan to raise the target range of the federal funds rate twice during 2019. Committee members said that they were holding off on raising rates due to slowing in domestic and global economic conditions. While Committee members said that the current economy is strong, they were willing to exercise patience in raising rates based on slower growth of home prices and potential impacts caused by Brexit and slowing in China’s economy.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, housing starts and building permits issued and data on retail sales. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims will also be released.

 

08
Apr
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 8th, 2019

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 8th, 2019Last week’s economic news included readings on construction spending and inflation; labor sector reports on the national unemployment rate, public and private sector employment were also released. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Rises, Retail Sales Slip

Construction spending expanded by one percent in February according to the Commerce Department spending was one percent higher month-to-month; analysts expected a negative reading of -0.10 percent. February saw a revised gain of 2.50 percent growth in construction spending.

Construction spending grew 1.10 percent year-over-year; by comparison, 2016 construction spending reached 10 percent year-over-year. High demand for homes and lower mortgage rates could compel more construction spending as the peak home-buying season starts.

Retail sales slowed in February, but January retail readings were strong. Sales dipped -0.20 percent as compared to 0.30 percent growth expected and January’s reading of 0.70 percent. Retail sales excluding automotive sales fell to a negative reading of -0.40 percent in February as compared to expected sales growth of 0.40 percent and January’s reading of 1.40 percent growth.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, New Jobless Claims

30-year fixed mortgage rates rose two basis points on average to 4.08 percent; rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged one basis point lower at 3.56 percent and rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were nine basis points lower and averaged 3.66 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate and 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.  Would-be home buyers are expected to join active buyers as lower rates hold steady and warmer weather arrives.

First-time jobless claims fell last week with 202,000 initial claims filed. Analysts expected 216,000 first-time jobless claims based on 212, 000 new jobless claims filed the prior week.

Jobs Data Varied, but Unemployment holds Steady

ADP reported 129,000 private-sector jobs added in March as compared to 197,000 jobs added in February and an expected reading of 165,000 jobs added. Loss of manufacturing jobs caused private-sector jobs growth to fall to its lowest reading in 18 months.

Government readings for public and private jobs growth was higher in March with 196,000 jobs added; this was significantly higher than February’s slim reading of 33,000 jobs added. The national unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.80 percent, which matched expectations.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on inflation, minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims will also be released.

25
Mar
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 25th, 2019

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 25th, 2019Last week’s economic news included readings from the National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee and a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Sales of pre-owned homes in February were reported along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged Despite Headwinds

Home builders remained confident about housing market conditions in March. The NAHB Housing Market Index posted a reading of 62, which matched February’s reading and fell one point short of expectations. NAHB Index readings above 50 represent a positive outlook on housing market conditions.

Home builders continued to face obstacles including high materials costs and lack of buildable lots and labor. Analysts said builders focused on building larger homes, which were not affordable for many prospective buyers.

FOMC: Fed Puts Brakes on Interest Rate Hikes

Monetary policymakers reversed course on raising the target range for federal funds and voted not to raise the current rate range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent. FOMC members cited global economic concerns including Brexit and wavering economic conditions in China.

While the U.S. Labor sector was strong with ongoing jobs and wage growth and low national unemployment, FOMC members said that the Fed could be “patient” about raising rates and did not expect to raise rates in 2019. Slowing economic growth and inflation were reasons for holding interest rates steady.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the current economy as “good” and said that the Fed would gradually roll back its accommodative purchase of treasury bonds. This news was likely to cause yields on 10-year Treasury notes to fall; this would cause mortgage rates to fall due to their connection with 10-year Treasury notes.

Pre-Owned Home Sales Hit 11 Month High in February

The National Association of Realtors® reported 5.50 million sales of pre-owned homes on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. February sales reading fell short of 5.12 million sales expected but were higher than the rate of 4.93 million sales in January.

February’s reading was 11.80 percent higher than January’s sales. The sales pace was 1.80 percent lower year-over-year, but the median sale price of preowned homes was $249,500., which was 3.60 percent higher year-over-year.

First-time buyers accounted for 34 percent of sales; this falls short of the typical 40 percent participation rate for first-time buyers. Affordability and strict mortgage qualification requirements continued to challenge first-time and moderate-income buyers.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average rates for fixed rate mortgages. 30-year fixed mortgage rates were three basis points lower and averaged 4.28 percent; Mortgage rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.71 percent and were five basis points lower on average. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage was unchanged at 3.84 percent. Discount points averaged 0.40 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims were lower last week with 221,000 new claims filed. Analysts expected 225,000 new claims based on the prior week’s reading of 230,000 new claims filed.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on housing starts and building permits issued, new and pending home sales and inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.