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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 20th, 2026

Inflation reports have shown their cards, and they have come in line with expectations. These newer reports rely on less data from sources overall, which is why the PCE Index remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator—and that distinction is even more relevant now.

Despite inflation coming in as expected, consumers are still feeling the steady pressure of price increases that are not keeping pace with wage growth. This is also consistent with what the PPI has shown, indicating that manufacturers are experiencing persistent inflationary pressure as well, though still in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve is still expected to reduce rates one more time heading into the new year.

Consumer Price Index
Inflation remained steady, with the December 2025 year-over-year CPI at 2.7%, matching November, while core CPI (excluding food/energy) was slightly lower at 2.6%, suggesting easing underlying pressures but with persistent shelter costs as the main driver. Month-over-month, CPI rose 0.3%, driven by food and shelter, though energy saw smaller gains and used cars declined, indicating a mixed but generally stable trend.

Producer Price Index
The cost of wholesale goods and services rose during the government shutdown and showed the persistence of inflation pressures in the guts of the U.S. economy. A combined report on producer prices showed a 0.2% increase in November and a 0.1% rise in October, the government said. The two months were combined into one report due to the recent federal shutdown.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08%, with the current rate at 5.38%
  • 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.10%, with the current rate at 6.06%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06%, with current rates at 5.75%
  • 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.07%, with current rates at 5.77%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 198,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 207,000.

What’s Ahead
Another FOMC Rate Decision for next week as well as some of the delayed Core PPI inflationary data.

The Role of A Down Payment: How Much Should I Save?

Buying a home, a car, or any significant investment often involves making a down payment. The down payment is a crucial part of the purchasing process, as it can impact your loan terms, interest rates, and monthly payments. But how much should you save for a down payment, and why is it so important?

Understanding Down Payments

A down payment is a portion of the purchase price that you pay upfront when buying a house, a car, or making a large investment. It’s a way to demonstrate your commitment to the purchase and reduce the risk for the lender or seller. Down payments are commonly associated with:

Homebuying: When purchasing a home, a down payment is typically required by mortgage lenders. The amount can vary but is often around 20% of the home’s purchase price.

Car purchases: Down payments for cars can also range, but they often hover around 10-20% of the vehicle’s price.

Large investments: In other scenarios, such as starting a business or investing in a big-ticket item, a down payment may be necessary to secure financing.

Importance of Down Payments

Lowering Monthly Payments: A larger down payment reduces the amount you need to finance, resulting in lower monthly payments. This can make your financial burden more manageable in the long run.

Qualifying for Loans: A substantial down payment can help you qualify for loans with more favorable terms and lower interest rates. Lenders often see a larger down payment as a sign of financial stability.

Building Equity: With a significant down payment, you’ll start building equity in your asset from day one. Equity is the portion of the property or asset you own, and it can grow over time, giving you more financial security.

How Much Should You Save for a Down Payment?

The ideal down payment amount can vary based on what you’re buying and your financial situation. Here are some general guidelines:

Homes: As mentioned earlier, a down payment of 20% is often recommended for purchasing a home. However, there are mortgage options that allow for lower down payments, such as FHA loans, which require as little as 3.5% down. The key is to balance a lower down payment with the added cost of private mortgage insurance (PMI) and potentially higher interest rates.

Cars: For buying a car, a down payment of 10-20% is a good range to aim for. This will help reduce the overall cost of the car loan and lower your monthly payments.

Large Investments: The down payment for investments can vary widely, so it’s essential to assess your specific financial goals and risks. In this case, consult with a financial advisor to determine the right amount.

How to Save for a Down Payment

Saving for a down payment may seem daunting, but with a clear plan, it’s achievable. Here are some steps to help you get started:

Create a Budget: Review your finances, set a budget, and identify areas where you can cut back on spending to save more.

Open a Dedicated Savings Account: Consider opening a separate savings account exclusively for your down payment fund. This will help you track your progress and keep the money out of sight and out of mind.

Automate Savings: Set up automatic transfers from your checking account to your down payment savings account. This ensures that you save consistently.

Increase Income: Explore opportunities to increase your income, such as taking on a part-time job or freelancing, to boost your savings rate.

Reduce Debt: Pay down high-interest debts like credit cards to free up more money for saving.

The role of down payments in major purchases cannot be overstated. They play a vital role in reducing the financial burden of loans, helping you secure better loan terms, and building equity in your assets. While the ideal down payment amount can vary, it’s essential to set a clear savings goal and follow a strategic plan to achieve it. With discipline and patience, you can save for a down payment and take a significant step toward achieving your financial goals.

Understanding the Jumbo Mortgage and Why Refinancing is Different

The contemporary trend towards expansive dimensions is palpable in various aspects of modern life. Oversized soft drinks, large fast-food meals, and expansive smartphones have become ubiquitous. However, one unlikely sector experiencing a similar trend is the realm of mortgages.

Delving into the specifics, what exactly constitutes a jumbo mortgage? How does it differ from its conventional counterpart, and what implications does it hold for potential refinancing? Here’s a comprehensive overview.

Jumbo Mortgages

As the name suggests, the primary distinguishing factor of jumbo mortgages lies in the loan limit. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac administer mortgage limits nationwide, contingent upon the cost of living in individual states. In scenarios involving high-value real estate, such as luxury properties and commercial holdings, standard mortgages may prove insufficient, thus necessitating the flexibility afforded by jumbo mortgages.

Jumbo mortgages are particularly prevalent in regions characterized by elevated living costs, where real estate values routinely exceed the standard loan limits applicable to high-cost areas.

Qualifying for a Jumbo Mortgage 

Given the higher financial stakes, eligibility requirements for jumbo mortgages are markedly more stringent than those for traditional mortgages. Notably, jumbo mortgages do not fall under private insurance coverage, resulting in a substantially larger down payment compared to standard mortgages. Prospective applicants must convincingly demonstrate to lenders their financial capacity to meet the obligations associated with a jumbo mortgage.

Additionally, a higher credit score is imperative for those seeking a jumbo mortgage. While a credit score of 660 or higher suffices for conventional mortgages, a minimum score of 700 is typically required for consideration by most lenders when applying for a jumbo mortgage.

Jumbo mortgage lenders may mandate that borrowers set aside a minimum of six months’ worth of payments in a dedicated bank account at the time of closing, a requirement that typically stands at two months for standard mortgages. Applicants must also prove to their lenders that their debt-to-income ratio is below 45 percent to qualify for a jumbo mortgage.

Refinancing Complexities

Refinancing a jumbo mortgage introduces heightened complexities compared to standard mortgages. Considerable home equity is a prerequisite for refinancing, and individuals looking to include Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) debt in the refinancing plan must adhere to stringent conditions, including the absence of any deductions against home equity in the preceding 12 months.

Specific lenders may impose additional requisites for refinancing jumbo mortgages. For example, homeowners with less than a year of ownership may be directed toward a Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae loan. Regardless of the fair market value at the time of mortgage filing, properties owned for less than a year are typically assessed at their original purchase price.

While jumbo mortgages provide an avenue for acquiring luxury residences or commercial properties, securing one demands meticulous adherence to a stringent set of prerequisites. Prospective applicants are advised to seek guidance from professional advisors to navigate the intricate qualification process successfully.

For those contemplating a jumbo mortgage, engaging with a seasoned mortgage professional is crucial to gaining insights into refinancing alternatives and understanding the qualification criteria. Reach out to your trusted mortgage professional to explore refinancing options and ascertain your eligibility for a jumbo mortgage.