Blog – Page 237 of 790 – Fred Gruber - First Rate Financial Group

21

Jun

Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 21, 2021

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 21, 2021 Last week’s economic news included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Home Builder Sentiment Slips Amid High Materials Prices, Labor Shortages

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index fell two points to a May index reading of 81. Readings above 50 indicate that most home builders are confident in market conditions, but builder sentiment has fallen from its peak reading of 90 before the pandemic. The NAHB Housing Market reached its lowest reading of 37 during the pandemic. Readings above 50 indicate that most builders surveyed were confident about housing market conditions.

Homebuilder confidence slipped due to higher home prices caused by high demand for homes. Builders have pulled back the pace of building homes due to rising lumber prices and potential buyers facing affordability concerns. While lumber prices remain high compared to pre-pandemic levels, they were 42 percent lower year-over-year.

Chuck Fowke, chairman of the NAHB, said, “These higher prices have priced new homes beyond the budget of prospective buyers, which has slowed the strong pace of home building.” Low mortgage rates prompt buyers to enter the market, but home prices in many areas require mortgage loans that many buyers cannot afford.

Homebuilders continued to face shortages of skilled carpenters and other workers. These shortages also impact the price of homes and building pace. Shortages of new and pre-owned homes created high levels of buyer competition with multiple offers on available homes. In addition, some metro areas are seeing more cash offers, which make buying homes more difficult for buyers who depend on mortgages to purchase homes.

In related news, the Commerce Department reported 1.57 million housing starts in May on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. 1.52 million starts were reported in April and 1.63 million starts were expected in May. Building permits issued in May fell to 1.63 million permits issued on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. 1.73 million building permits were issued in April and analysts expected the same number of permits to be issued in May.

Mortgage Rates Fall; Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week with rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaging 2.93 percent and three basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were one basis point higher on average at 2.24 percent; rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were three basis points lower on average at 2.52 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Jobless claims were mixed last week as new jobless claims rose to 412,000 first-time claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 375,000 initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were unchanged at 3.52 million claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, inflation, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

18

Jun

By First Rate Financial Group

Financial Reports

FOMC Statement: Fed Predicts 2 Interest Rate Hikes in 2023

FOMC Statement: Fed Predicts 2 Interest Rate Hikes in 2023 The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve said in its post-meeting statement that the Federal Reserve expects to raise its benchmark interest rate range twice during 2023. No rate changes will be made during 2022 as the economy continues to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. The Fed’s current interest rate range is 0.00 to 0.25 percent.

Fed Expects “Transitory” Inflation

The Fed’s post-meeting FOMC statement said that although Committee members adjusted their forecast for raising the Fed’s benchmark interest rate range, members did not predict long-term inflation and described current upward inflation as “transitory.”

The Consumer Price Index reported that the cost of living jumped in May and drove inflationary growth to a 13-year high of five percent.

11 of 18 FOMC members currently expect two or more rate hikes in 2023; in March, seven members expected one rate hike in 2023. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said that the Fed needs to reconsider its monetary policies based on the two stimulus payments provided to Americans. The Fed has held its benchmark interest rate range to 0.00 to 0.25 percent and continued its monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasurys and $40 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities in efforts to support the economy and stabilize financial markets.

The Committee will follow economic news and developments through readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation, and financial and global news to determine monetary policy adjustments.

Fed Chair Suggests Future Tapering of Bond Purchases

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-FOMC meeting press conference that members had their first discussion of tapering the Fed’s bond purchases. Although the Fed has indicated it wants to see “substantial further progress” in the economy before it starts to taper its bond purchases, analysts expected further discussion of tapering bond purchases in FOMC’s July meeting. Reducing bond purchases is considered the first step in moderating the Fed’s accommodative stance on monetary policy.

Chair Powell said that the FOMC will continue to develop monetary policy in consideration of the FOMC’s dual mandate of achieving maximum and an annual inflation rate of two percent over the longer term. Inflation has run below two percent for some time before the pandemic; so a current inflation rate running above two percent would help raise the average inflation rate to the two percent requirement.

The unemployment rate is improving as businesses and other employers open their doors and restore service to full capacity. Chair Powell cautioned that the economy remains strongly connected to how the Covid-19 virus progresses and said that monetary policy would be adjusted according to how the pandemic impacts the economy.

17

Jun

By First Rate Financial Group

Mortgage

Is an ARM Loan Right for You?

Is an ARM right for you In today’s competitive housing industry, it’s important to find the loan that’s right for you. With the low-interest-rate environment, many buyers wonder if an ARM loan is the best choice. Here’s everything you should consider before choosing an ARM loan.

Understanding how an ARM Loan Works

An ARM loan offers an introductory rate. The rate remains fixed for the first few years. After the fixed period, the rate adjusts annually based on the index (such as LIBOR) and the chosen margin set by the lender.

Many buyers prefer the ARM because the initial payment is much lower so they can afford a larger loan. With the potential of increasing rates in the near future, many buyers are looking at the ARM for its lower cost.

A fixed-rate loan, on the other hand, starts at one rate and remains the same. Your payment never changes unless you escrow your taxes and insurance, and those rates change throughout the time you own the home.

Pros and Cons of the ARM Loan

Pros:

Lower payment for the first few years
You may be able to pay more principal each month with the lower payment
Rates may decrease in the future

Cons:

Rates can increase significantly
Your monthly payment will change annually after the fixed period
It’s hard to predict your financial situation 5 to 10 years from now

Choosing Between an ARM Loan and Fixed Rate Loan

Because you don’t know where you’ll be 5 to 10 years from now, it’s hard to decide if an ARM loan or fixed-rate loan is right. Here’s what you should consider.

Will you Move Soon?

Think about your plans. Will you move in the next few years? If so, an ARM may make sense, especially if you can get one with a rate that will adjust after you sell the house.

Do you Think you’ll Refinance?

Some people like refinancing whether to get the lowest rates or to tap into their home’s equity. If you’ve structured your loan so that you put money into the home now but will tap into it later, an ARM may save you money for a few years. If you refinance before the rate adjusts, you eliminate the risk of increasing rates.

Do you not Like Risks?

No matter what your future plans may be, if you don’t like risks and uncertainty, a fixed-rate loan is a better choice. You’ll get more predictability and know exactly what your payment is each month. You’ll also know when you can afford to pay more principal and pay your loan down faster.

Choose the Right Loan Term for You

Look at your situation and choose the loan term that suits your finances now and in the future. Even if everyone around you is taking an ARM loan doesn’t mean it’s right for you. Know the terms, how much the rate can change, and what you are comfortable affording.

Talk with your loan officer and look at all scenarios, paying close attention to the loan’s total cost over the life of the loan before deciding.