26
Jun
By Fred Gruber
Mortgage Rates

How Economic Trends Influence Mortgage Lending

As a consumer, understanding these economic trends can empower you to make informed decisions about your mortgage. Let’s discuss some key economic factors that influence mortgage lending and what they mean for you.

Interest Rates: The Pulse of Mortgage Lending

Interest rates are perhaps the most significant economic indicator affecting mortgage lending. When the Federal Reserve adjusts its benchmark interest rate, it directly impacts the rates banks offer on mortgages.

Low-Interest Rates: In a low-interest-rate environment, borrowing costs decrease, making mortgages more affordable. This often leads to increased home buying, as lower monthly payments are more attractive to consumers.

High-Interest Rates: Conversely, high interest rates can dampen the housing market. Higher borrowing costs mean higher monthly payments, which can deter potential buyers and slow down the housing market.

Economic Growth and Employment

The overall health of the economy, measured by GDP growth and employment rates, also significantly influences mortgage lending.

Strong Economic Growth: When the economy is growing, employment rates are typically high, and wages are rising. This creates a favorable environment for mortgage lending, as more people have stable incomes and are confident in their ability to make mortgage payments. Lenders are also more willing to extend credit in such an environment.

Economic Downturns: On the flip side, during economic downturns, unemployment rises, and wages stagnate or fall. This can lead to stricter lending criteria as lenders become more cautious about extending credit. Consumers might also be more hesitant to take on large debts, such as mortgages, during uncertain times.

Inflation and Housing Market Trends

Inflation and specific trends in the housing market also play pivotal roles in mortgage lending.

Inflation: When inflation rises, the cost of living increases, and so do interest rates, as the Federal Reserve attempts to curb inflation. Higher interest rates translate to higher mortgage rates, which can slow down the housing market.

Housing Market Trends: Trends such as housing supply and demand, regional housing market strength, and overall housing prices also affect mortgage lending. In hot housing markets, where demand outstrips supply, prices rise, and lenders may become more competitive with their mortgage offerings. Conversely, in a cooling market, lenders might tighten their criteria to mitigate risk.

Government Policies and Regulations

Government policies and regulations can have a profound impact on mortgage lending.

Tax Policies: Changes in tax laws, such as the mortgage interest deduction, can influence the attractiveness of taking on a mortgage.

Regulatory Changes:
Regulatory changes can either tighten or loosen lending standards. Policies designed to encourage homeownership might make mortgages more accessible, while those aimed at preventing another financial crisis could result in stricter lending criteria.

Global Economic Factors

Global economic conditions can also trickle down to affect domestic mortgage lending. Events such as international trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and global economic slowdowns can impact interest rates and economic stability, influencing mortgage markets indirectly.

What This Means for You

As a potential homeowner or someone looking to refinance, staying informed about these economic trends can help you make strategic decisions. Here are some practical tips:

  1. Monitor Interest Rates: Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve’s actions and general interest rate trends. Lock in a mortgage when rates are low to save on interest over the life of your loan.
  2. Assess Your Financial Stability: Ensure that your income is stable and that you have a healthy credit score. This will make it easier to qualify for a mortgage, especially in uncertain economic times.
  3. Consider the Economic Cycle: If the economy is strong and growing, it might be a good time to buy, as employment is high, and incomes are generally rising. Conversely, during an economic downturn, you might face tighter lending conditions but could benefit from lower prices if you are financially secure.
  4. Stay Updated on Government Policies: Be aware of any changes in tax laws or regulations that could affect your mortgage. Understanding these can help you take advantage of beneficial policies or prepare for stricter lending standards.
  5. Think Long-Term: While economic conditions fluctuate, your mortgage is a long-term commitment. Consider not just the current economic environment but also your long-term financial goals and stability.

Economic trends have a significant impact on mortgage lending, influencing everything from interest rates to lender policies. By staying informed and understanding these trends, you can make better decisions and secure the best possible terms for your mortgage. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or looking to refinance, being aware of the economic landscape can help you navigate the complex world of mortgage lending with confidence.

23
Oct
By Fred Gruber
0 Comments
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 23, 2023

This week featured the usual retail sales report which shows consumer demand and as well as an indicator of the velocity of money, not only for consumers but business to business as well. An increase would show an increase in national and local increase in economic activity, which is important as we move into Q4 of the year; where the holiday season is expected to see an increase in consumer activity.

Retail Sales
Retail sales have exceeded expectations this month showing month-to-month increases across the board:

  • Retail sales are up 0.7% from the previous month with an expected increase of 0.3%.
  • Retail sales with auto removed show an increase of 0.6% compared to an expected 0.2% increase.
  • Business inventories are also above the expected increase at 0.4% compared to 0.3%.

Housing Starts & Building Permits
U.S. Housing Starts rebound in September in September after a sharp drop in the prior month. Largely, economists are feeling that builders have been losing confidence since rates have peaked over 7% and housing is expected to trend lower until the end of the year.

  • Construction of new U.S. homes rebounded 7% in September to an annual pace of 1.36 million units after a sharp 1.5% drop in the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
  • Building permits, a sign of future construction, fell 4.4% to a 1.47 million rate.
  • Existing home sales beat expected sales with 3.98 million sales compared to the expected 3.90 million sales.

Key point: The pace of construction for single-family homes in September has risen by 3.2% and apartment building construction rose by 17.1%

Mortgage Applications Increased for the Month of October
MBA Mortgage Applications Increase, a measure of mortgage loan application volume again.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week increase by 0.03% with the rates now at 92%.
  • 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week increase by 0.06% with the current rate at 63%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates increased week to week seeing a 0.28% basis point increase. Current rates at 40%
  • 30-Yr VA rates increased week to week seeing a 0.30% basis point increase. Current rates at 44%

Job Claims
Those who applied for unemployment benefits last week fell to a nine-month low of 188,000, subverting expectations that layoffs would rise as the U.S. interest rates continued to increase.

Initial Claims were 188,000 compared to the expected claims of 211,000. The prior month was 211,000.

What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reports include PMI data, along with new home sales. There will also be a national GDP data release which can give an indication of the growth of markets and economy as a whole. Lastly, Personal Income and Spending will be at the tail of the week along with PCE Index numbers.

05
Sep
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 5, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 5, 2023

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, consumer sentiment, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. 

 

Inflation Rates Are Similar in August

Month-to-month, the inflation rate holds relatively steady at 3.18 percent. This is slightly up when compared to 2.97 percent last month; however, it is significantly lower than the rate of 8.52 percent last year. When compared to the long-term average, inflation is trending in the right direction, as the long-term average is 3.2 percent.

Inflation rose at a pace of 0.20 percent in July and met analysts’ expectations. There was no change in the pace of month-to-month inflation from June’s reading of 0.20 percent growth. The Consumer Price Index also reported that year-over-year inflation reached 9.10 percent, which was the highest reading since reaching a 40-year high in mid-2022.

 

While we still wait for core inflation, experts predict it to come in at around 3.38 percent. Core inflation, also known as the CPI, excludes food and fuel prices, which are historically volatile. If core inflation comes in at 3.38 percent, this would be significantly lower than the July reading of 4.7 percent.

 

Right now, it is unclear whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, as they are still waiting for other metrics, including the core inflation above.

 

Mortgage Rates Rise, Job Market Cools

The 30-year fixed, the preferred metric for mortgage rates, remains at around 7.53 percent. These are the highest mortgage rates of the last 20 years. Rates continue to rise when compared to July’s mortgage rates, which were just under 7 percent. This continues to put pressure on those interested in purchasing homes. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate is about 6.81 percent. This is slightly higher than the 15-year fixed for August, which was 6.55 percent on average.

 

When comparing these mortgage rates to last week, the 30-year fixed has gone up. It was 7.23 percent, on average, last week, and has jumped to 7.53 percent this week. The average rate for a 15-year fixed is 6.81 percent this week, which is slightly higher than last week, where the average 15-year fixed was 6.55 percent.

 

It appears that the increase in interest rates is finally having an impact on the job market. Unemployment rose to 3.8 percent, and the economy added 187,000 jobs in August. While these are still historically solid numbers, it is clear that the job market is cooling, when compared to July.


University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey 

The University of Michigan released its monthly consumer sentiment report, and consumer sentiment has dropped slightly when compared to last month. The index reading was 72.0 in July, but it dropped to 69.5 in August. The overall sentiment regarding the economy also dropped from 76.6 in July to 75.7 in August. 

 

These numbers reflect that consumers are still a bit wary of economic conditions. While inflation continues to come down, many consumers are likely still nervous about the increase in interest rates and the cooling job market. While sentiment remains positive, there is some cooling in the economy.

 

What’s Ahead

During the next week, mortgage rates will get an update, and the Federal Reserve will receive some new metrics regarding the economy. These numbers will be very important for the Fed, as it decides whether it will raise interest rates again in September in an attempt to cool inflation further.