Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic reporting included a speech and press conference by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, data on pending home sales and sales of new homes, and the University of Michigan’s monthly reading on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

Fed Chair: Rate Hikes Above 0.25 Percent May be Needed to Ease Inflation

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed is willing to move beyond its recent 0.25 percent rate hike to control inflation.  In a speech made to the National Business Association for Business Economics, Mr.Powell said, “We will take necessary steps to ensure a return to price stability. In particular, if we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at  a meeting or meetings, we will do so.” Mr. Powell clarified that the Fed is willing to raise rates as needed to control inflation. He predicted that the Fed would raise its key interest rate to 1.90 percent this year and 2,8 percent in 2023.

Mortgage Rates Rise Again as Sales of New Homes Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 26 basis points and averaged 4.42 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 24 basis points to 3.63 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by 17 basis points to 3.36 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

The combined impact of rising home prices and mortgage rates caused sales of new homes to fall in February.  772,000 new homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to expectations of 805,000 sales and January’s reading of 788,000 new homes sold.

Initial jobless claims fell last week to 187,000 claims filed as compared to expectations of 210,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 215,000 first-time jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.35 million filings as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.42 million jobless claims filed on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.  

The University of Michigan’s final Consumer Sentiment Index for March showed consumer skepticism about current economic conditions. The March index reading was 59.4 as compared to the expected reading of 59.7, which matched February’s index reading for consumer sentiment.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, The Federal Housing Finance Administration’s House Price Index, and data on public and private-sector jobs growth. The national unemployment rate will be published along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Last week’s economic reporting included month-to-month and year-over-year readings on inflation. The University of Michigan released its monthly consumer sentiment index; weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

Inflation Reports: No Good News for Consumers

The war in Ukraine increased inflation rates in the U.S in February as costs for fuel, food and housing continued to rise. The federal government reported that month-to-month inflation rose by 0.80 percent in February; analysts expected a month-to-month increase of 0.70 percent as compared to January’s reading of 0.60 percent.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, rose by 0.50 percent in February and matched expectations. January’s month-to-month rate for core inflation was 0.60 percent and was the highest reading for month-to-month core inflation since 1981. Analysts reported that high inflation was impacting low and moderate-income Americans more as rapidly rising costs for housing, food, and fuel rose faster than wages for most.

Year-over-year inflation rose by 7.90 percent in February as compared to January’s reading of 7.50 percent. Core inflation rose at a year-over-year pace of 6.40 percent in February and surpassed January’s core reading of 6.00 percent. Core inflation readings exclude volatile food and fuel sectors.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased by nine basis points to 3.85 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.09 percent and were eight basis points higher than in the previous week. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was six basis points higher at 2.97 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30  percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Last week’s initial jobless claims rose to 217,000 new claims filed as compared to 216,000 first-time claims filed in the previous week. Analysts expected initial jobless claims filed last week to match the previous week’s reading of 216,000 first-time claims filed.  Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.49 million claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.47 million ongoing claims filed.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey reflected consumer concerns over inflation and the potential economic impacts of the Ukraine war. The March index reading of 59.7 was lower than February’s reading of 62.8 and the expected index reading of 62.0. Index readings over 50 indicate that most consumers are confident about economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on U.S housing markets, the Federal Reserve’s statement on interest rates, and the Federal Reserve chairman’s press conference. Data on building permits, housing starts, and sales of previously-owned homes will also be released. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.