Jobless Claims

The government has been facing a shutdown for the past 19 days with continued obstinacy from both parties, largely over healthcare subsidies.

As a result, there will be few major reports this week, the most notable being the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which indicates that the U.S. economy is once again showing signs of slowing.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also provided comments on the current inflation outlook, noting that multiple private and public data sources show inflation remains largely within projections. He added that the Fed will maintain its current monetary policy stance despite the ongoing government shutdow. There is still another planned rate cut potentially this year.

Federal Reserve Beige Book
Reports from across the U.S. indicate sluggish economic conditions in much of the country, with only three of the Federal Reserve’s 12 district banks reporting expanding activity in their regions, according to the Federal Reverse’s latest “beige book” report. The remaining nine districts reported either flat or contracting economic activity.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week, with the current rate at 5.52%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 6.27%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.99%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.01%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
There are some expectations that the shutdown could end next week, and the CPI and PPI reports (key inflation reports) may potentially be on the horizon.

Due to the government shutdown, nearly all reports will be delayed aside from a few third party reports. The Consumer Sentiment report has been released on time and shows that consumers are still frustrated with the economy and increasingly high inflation. It is unknown when the government shutdown will end and when we will be seeing reports released again in a timely fashion. Interest rates will still be continued to be adjusted amidst the government shutdown.

Consumer Sentiment
Americans have soured on the prospect of finding new jobs, a new survey shows. They are also still frustrated by persistent inflation, giving them little confidence that the economy will improve soon. The first reading of the consumer sentiment survey in October was basically flat at 55.0, the University of Michigan said Friday. The index has been hovering at levels that are typically experienced during recessions.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 5.53%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.30%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.04%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
The CPI and PPI — key inflation reports — are tentatively scheduled to be released.

The release of key Unemployment Data was delayed last week due to administrative changes in how jobless figures are tracked. The Consumer Confidence report reflects these policy adjustments, showing growing concerns about the job market and a larger-than-expected decline in confidence for September.

Lastly, with tariff disruptions continuing to affect the manufacturing sector, the Global US Manufacturing data has revealed that production has slowed overall since the initial disruptions.

Manufacturing PMI
The latest survey showed a weaker gain in production, whilst new order book growth softened as tariffs continued to weigh on exports. Tariffs and broader policy uncertainty also dampened firms’ assessment of the business outlook, but expectations of manufacturing production reshoring and hopes of better demand in the year ahead meant sentiment remained positive overall.

Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence fell sharply in September on growing worries about the labor market. The consumer-confidence index dropped to 94.2 in September from a revised 97.8 in the prior month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. This is the lowest level since April.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week, with the current rate at 5.55%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.34%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.05%

Jobless Claims
The unemployment data has been delayed, but expected claims are 222,000. The prior week landed at 218,000.

What’s Ahead
The key releases next week will include major inflation reports — the CPI and PPI — along with the delayed Unemployment Data report. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will also be a notable release.