Jobless Claims

While the Core PCE Index came in at 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%, overall inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

With inflation still running above the Federal Reserve’s target, there remains room for rates to stay elevated or potentially increase over the next several rate decisions if the Fed remains focused on restraining inflation.

The JOLTS job openings report has also revealed a larger-than-expected gap. Job growth across the board has been slowing, with growth concentrated in only a handful of sectors.

The nonfarm payroll figures have also come in well below expectations, while the unemployment rate remains elevated on a year-over-year basis when compared with historical levels over the past decade.

PCE Index
PCE increased 3.4% from a year earlier, while core PCE—which excludes food and energy—increased 3.0%. Both were still above the Fed’s 2% target. 

JOLTs Job Openings
Job openings fell to 7.08 million in August, down from a revised 7.34 million in July and below economists’ expectations of 7.23 million. The job openings rate declined to 4.3%, signaling continued cooling in labor demand.

Non-farm Payroll
Average hourly earnings increased 0.1% in September to $37.81, bringing annual wage growth to 3.0%. Wage growth slowed from 3.1% in August, providing a more favorable signal for inflation and interest rates.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.18%, bringing the current rate to 6.60%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.25%, bringing the current rate to 7.28%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.05%, with current rate at 7.20%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.04%, with current rate at 7.21%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 197,000 compared to the expected claims of 200,000. The previous week landed at 202,000.

What’s Ahead
The following week will be relatively light, with the Consumer Sentiment Report being the largest release, alongside major bill and bond auctions. There are also a couple of key speeches from Federal Reserve members that could provide forward guidance on future rate decisions.

With a light week the previous week, only a few data reports will have any far reaching impact, with the M2 money supply and the Federal Reserve Balance sheet giving the most insight.

The M2 Money supply has really only increased ever since the COVID pandemic, and has more or less kept in line with the rate inflation has been impacting the costs of many sectors.

While the Federal Reserve balance sheets show a trend of increasing lately, it has shown there is still restraint by the Federal Reserve which is evidenced by the recent increase in interest rates. They are showing strong intent that they do want to combat the rising inflation and bring it down under control.

M2 Money Supply
M2 increased to $23.343 trillion in August, up from $23.218 trillion in July, an increase of approximately $124.9 billion, or 0.54% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, M2 was up about 5.66%, compared with $22.093 trillion in August 2025.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
The Fed’s securities held outright totaled about $6.471 trillion, including $4.558 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities and $1.910 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Compared with the previous week, Treasury holdings increased by roughly $3.9 billion, while MBS holdings declined by approximately $3.1 billion.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.16%, bringing the current rate to 6.42%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08%, bringing the current rate to 7.03%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.34%, with current rate at 7.15%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.35%, with current rate at 7.17%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 220,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The previous week landed at 207,000.

What’s Ahead
PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, is due next week. This will be followed up by Non-farm Payroll and Unemployment Data. Lastly, there will also be some insight on current GDP growth numbers.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise rates to combat significant inflation have come to pass, with a modest 0.25% increase in the rate. The Federal Reserve has stated that it remains committed to restoring inflation to its 2.0% target, which will likely include further rate increases in the future. The rest of the week featured a light economic calendar with very few impactful releases, leaving the Federal Reserve’s rate decision as the primary driver of market activity.

FOMC Rate Decision
At its September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This was the Fed’s first rate increase since July 2023.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.17%, bringing the current rate to 6.26%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.19%, bringing the current rate to 6.95%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.13%, with current rate at 6.81%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.12%, with current rate at 6.82%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 198,000 compared to the expected claims of 208,000. The previous week landed at 206,000.

What’s Ahead
Another light week lies ahead. The notable reports will be the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and M2 Money Supply data releases. These reports can provide valuable insight into changes in liquidity and the broader money supply, both of which can influence inflation and overall economic conditions.